U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine Breaks All Precedents

A look at the evolution of Washington’s unprecedented security assistance effort to Ukraine.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States has committed an astounding $17.6 billion in security assistance to support the Government of Ukraine, breaking almost all quantitative and even qualitative precedents. That figure eclipses the yearly total of any security partner of the 21st century. Based on current assessments, that assistance has been indispensable not only in withstanding Moscow’s military might, but in enabling a surprisingly robust series of counteroffensives that has allowed Kyiv to retake significant portions of the territory it lost in the war’s early months. With the winter months approaching and likely hem operations on both sides, it’s worth reflecting on the U.S. military aid effort in Ukraine and how it’s evolved since February.

Ukraine Aid Before the War

While U.S. security cooperation with Ukraine prior to 2014 existed on a somewhat notable scale, it was comparable to U.S. partnerships with other post-soviet countries. According to the Security Assistance Monitor, military aid to Ukraine between FY2003-FY2013 totaled $504 million, placing it just behind the total amounts provided to Bolivia and Kazakhstan during that period. Although a significant amount of assistance, that $504 million wouldn’t place Ukraine in the top 20 U.S. security assistance recipients during those years. Of that total, more than half ($304 million) came from the Department of Defense’s Cooperative Threat Reduction program – an initiative created to secure and dismantle stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction and their associated equipment left behind in the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse. In other words, much of the security assistance provided to Ukraine before 2014 was not directed at improving Kyiv’s military capability or wherewithal, but at securing its substantial nuclear infrastructure.

That changed dramatically following the 2014 Maidan protests and the ouster of Ukraine’s Russian-aligned government. After Russia illegally annexed Crimea and sent troops into Ukraine’s east in support of separatists there, Western military support to Kyiv grew dramatically. In FY2014, U.S. military aid to Ukraine more than doubled the amount provided in the previous fiscal year, rising from $49 million to $91 million, before doubling again in FY2015 to $182 million. The figures would continue to grow and by the eve of Russia’s 2022 invasion, the United States' investment in Ukrainian security assistance since 2014 totaled $2.8 billion.

While aid grew in scale and scope, the nature of U.S. security assistance to Kyiv also evolved. Assistance pivoted from securing nuclear stockpiles to supporting the development of Ukraine’s military capabilities. Between FY2014 and FY2020, in addition to at least $677 million in Foreign Military Financing, a program that provides grants to countries to purchase American arms, the United States funneled at least $1.02 billion through the purpose-built Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. Established FY2016, the program funds defense acquisitions as well as other security and intelligence support for Ukraine.

While these figures represented more than a 316% increase in assistance in about half the time compared to the 10 years before the war, it would pale in comparison to the partnership after February 2022.

Ukrainian Security Assistance Since February 2022

Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 sparked what has come to be the most intensive military assistance enterprise of the 21st century. Between February 24 and October 4, 2022, the United States provided Kyiv with at least $17.6 billion in security assistance, more than six times what the United States provided in all eight years following Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

Such a massive figure is difficult to conceptualize but to put it into context, the number is more than the United States has ever given another country in a single year since at least the end of the Cold War. It is five times the amount the U.S. provides to Israel annually, historically the largest recipient of U.S. military assistance, and eclipses the largest yearly amount allocated to the Afghan Security Forces even at the height of the war effort when thousands of U.S. service members were deployed in theater.

Indeed, $17.6 billion is $2.28 billion more than the cumulative amount the United States provided in Defense and State Department military and security assistance to all countries in FY2021 and nearly three times Ukraine’s entire defense budget in 2020.  

That assistance has come in the form of thousands of defense articles and equipment. According to the State Department, among the thousands of items committed to Kyiv have included:

  • Over 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, 8,500 Javelin anti-armor systems, and 32,000 other anti-armor systems.
  • Over 700 Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems, approximately 700 Phoenix Ghost Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems, Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems, 15 Scan Eagle Unmanned Aerial Systems, and Unmanned Coastal Defense Vessels.
  • 142 155mm Howitzers, up to 810,000 155mm artillery rounds, 2,500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds, and 1,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems.
  • 36 105mm Howitzers and 180,000 105mm artillery rounds.
  • 20 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and ammunition.
  • 20 120mm mortar systems and 115,000 rounds of 120mm mortar rounds.
  • Eight National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and munitions.
  • High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs).
  • 20 Mi-17 helicopters.
  • 200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers, 40 MaxxPro Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles with mine rollers, and 200 MaxxPro Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles.
  • Over 10,000 grenade launchers and small arms, and over 60,200,000 rounds of small arms ammunition.

The nature of the assistance provided to Ukraine, including the type and sophistication of equipment, has also evolved over time. Beginning with the sort of man-portable systems that proved pivotal for the small-unit, urban fighting that defined the initial fighting in key cities to advanced rocket artillery systems or anti-radiation missiles, American-provided materiel has tracked with the evolving nature of the war.  Indeed, despite repeated warnings from Moscow that the provision of increasingly advanced weaponry could illicit a more direct response from the Kremlin, Washington has methodically escalated the sophistication of its military assistance.

Washington’s willingness to provide ever more robust assistance reflects the changing operational environments on the ground, Kyiv’s battlefield successes, and an assessment that President Putin is loath to escalate the conflict into a direct confrontation with Ukraine’s backers. The risk of miscalculation is severe, and escalation management is notoriously difficult to control, but thus far, the military assistance effort has upended expectations of Ukraine’s prospects in the war. After ceding ground to Russia over the summer months, international military assistance to Ukraine has been instrumental in a string of recent Ukrainian victories, including offensives that have retaken substantial swathes of territory once held by Russia.

But with many analysts predicting a protracted conflict, and with signals from Moscow that it is prepared to double down in its invasion, the military assistance effort is likely to continue to evolve. Looking forward, U.S. assistance in its current form will need to change to remain sustainable and to reflect realities on the ground for the medium and long term. 

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Elias Yousif • Rachel Stohl

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