Padres’ offense almost can’t help but be better than it was in 2022

The Padres had already scored a run when the fifth inning of Thursday’s Cactus League game against the Rockies began.

Connor Seabold, in contention to be in Colorado’s starting rotation, entered the game but didn’t bring his command.

The Padres took advantage of it by demonstrating what they might be able to do to such a pitcher frequently in 2023. What they should probably be expected to do. What they likely must do a lot if they are to achieve their goal of an unprecedented championship season.

By employing the oft-elusive ideal of patient aggressiveness, Padres batters waited out and pummeled Seabold.

Lead-off batter Trent Grisham fouled off the first pitch he saw, watched three balls and then crushed a fastball at the top of the zone 399 feet and over the wall in right-center field. Fernando Tatis Jr. followed with a walk on eight pitches and moved to third on a single by Jake Cronenworth on the seventh pitch he saw. After Xander Bogaerts popped out on the ninth pitch of his at-bat, Ha-Seong Kim lined a single to left field that drove in Tatis.

That was it for Seabold. Austin Nola moved the runners over with a groundout to the right side, and David Dahl drove in both with a single.

“It’s really good,” Bogaerts said when asked about the offense. “A lot of quality at-bats.”

The Padres added a run in the sixth on a Cronenworth homer.

“It’s just nice to get more and more of what looks like the San Diego Padres out there,” manager Bob Melvin said afterward. “And I think that inspires guys. Less than two weeks (to opening day) now. We’re getting everybody back. There’s kind of a finish line to this right now and you would expect the at-bats to be better. Especially at the top there, we had some really good ones today.”

It was a spring training game, yes. But it was the way the runs came, especially in the fifth inning, that was encouraging for the Padres. And that was with Manny Machado and Juan Soto still making their way back from the World Baseball Classic.

Saturday against the Brewers, the Padres will field a lineup largely resembling what they plan to go with for the vast majority of games this season. That will include Tatis, who will lead off and play in his third straight game. Soto, Machado and Bogaerts will almost certainly hit directly behind him.

In the season, that will mean Nelson Cruz or Matt Carpenter batting fifth or sixth with Cronenworth in the other spot. It means the bottom three batters most often having only to do their part.

There almost has to be a trickle-down effect from having four of the game’s best hitters at the top of the order.

“Especially in our lineup, with the players we have, the ability that we have, it’s gonna be hard to pitch around some guys,” Cronenworth said earlier this spring. “It’s being ready to go at all times. I think sometimes we fell into that hole last year where we were all getting on base but we would be treating that sometimes like nobody was on base. Because of who’s hitting behind each other and who’s hitting in front of you, you’re gonna get some pitches to hit, because they have to come at you. As much as we can be ready for that situation … and execute that plan I think it’s going to be good.”

Jake Cronenworth singles in the first inning of last Saturday’s game against the White Sox in Peoria.

(K.C. Alfred/The San Diego Union-Tribune)

Now, they have thought this before.

They have done it before. In the 60-game season of 2020, they were among the best at making pitchers work and relentlessly piling on.

But for all the improvements that have been made on offense, the production has not been where it could or arguably should have been over the course of a full season.

The Padres made an organizational push to get on base after finishing last in on-base percentage every year from 2014-18. They finished 26^th in ’19, eighth in ’20, 10^th in ’21 and eighth last season.

Their gains in slugging percentage have not been nearly as substantial. After finishing in the bottom five each year from 2014-19, they shot up to fourth in the abbreviated 2020 campaign. Since then, they have finished 21^st and 22^nd.

Generally, the issue has too often been being too selective and not aggressive enough. Padres hitters have improved in many of the metrics that suggest a top offense — chase rate, pitches per plate appearance, fly ball rate, etc. — but have not seen enough gains in hitting the ball hard and far. They have also not connected as often as they should on pitches, fastballs in particular, in the strike zone.

For all the adjustments that could be talked about — such as Grisham working to allow the strength of his plate discipline to actually bolster an assertive approach or Kim shortening his swing — the addition of quality hitters alone almost has to improve the Padres’ ability to produce on a more consistent basis.

And we’re not even talking about the additions of Cruz and Carpenter to platoon at designated hitter and come off the bench. That may prove to be as beneficial as the Padres hope. But that would be speculative, as it remains to be seen if the 42-year-old Cruz can regain and retain his prowess after offseason eye surgery and whether the 37-year-old Carpenter can sustain what he recaptured briefly with the Yankees last season.

What does not seem speculative is asserting the Padres are stacked to a degree rarely seen in baseball history atop their batting order.

When Tatis returns after serving the final 20 games of his PED suspension, the top three will be the group that caused Soto to “wish good luck” to opposing pitchers when he arrived in August. This could really be that, at least once Tatis returns 21 games into the season.

And then consider Bogaerts as a fourth wheel.

“It’s going to be very, very fun,” Soto said.

Xander Bogaerts runs to first base during a spring training game against the Diamondbacks.

(K.C. Alfred/The San Diego Union-Tribune)

The Dodgers’ first three batters last season (Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman) were considered one of the best 1-2-3 punches ever assembled. Freeman ranked seventh in the major leagues with a 152 OPS-plus, Betts 20^th at 136 and Turner 50^th at 121. Freeman was fifth in wRC-plus (157), Betts 11^th (144) and Turner 37^th (128).

The Padres’ top four compare more than favorably in the two metrics that basically serve to quantify a player’s offensive production by standardizing it across eras and accounting for other factors. (A league average player has an wRC-plus or OPS-plus of 100. A 120 means the player is 20 percent better than average.) Machado was fifth in OPS-plus (152), Soto eighth (149) and Bogaerts 27^th (131). Machado was sixth in wRC-plus (152), Soto 10^th (145) and Bogaerts 26^th (134). Tatis, who did not play last season, ranked fourth in both categories in 2021.

(Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs)

If this offense isn’t better in 2023, it might be time to do an archeological excavation underneath the playing surface at Petco Park or search for some other reason the team’s bats might be cursed.

Asked what it would take for this offense to not be one of the best in the majors this season, Tatis was stumped. After 20 seconds of silence and a faraway look, the last half of the time spent shaking his head slightly, he shrugged.

“I guess just a lack of work,” he said. “If we don’t put the work in. But I feel like that’s never gonna happen. … It is gonna be really impressive. It’s gonna be special. Hopefully we create memories that only we have lived. I feel like it’s definitely gonna be something special.”