Editorial: Here’s Gloria’s first misstep as mayor — using bogus data for greenhouse emissions

In 2017, reporter Joshua Emerson Smith of The San Diego Union-Tribune wrote a stunning analysis that revealed the city was exaggerating its progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions by using a flawed, outdated statistical model that “resulted in a climate plan that found driving dramatically slowed down during a period when in fact it significantly picked up.” In evaluating the progress made in meeting goals set in the 2015 Climate Action Plan, the city egregiously used a baseline estimate of 2010 emissions that came from before the Great Recession hit in 2008 and reduced use of vehicles.

Smith’s reporting was not challenged by officials. It was corroborated. “The city recognized the statistical anomaly, stressing that efforts are being made to improve tracking of progress on its climate plan,” he wrote then. Yet this week, another amazing analysis by Smith revealed that new Mayor Todd Gloria’s administration based its assertion that San Diego has reduced greenhouse-gas emissions by 25 percent over the past 10 years on the same flawed, outdated statistical model. In response to questions from Smith and subsequent questions from an editorial writer, the Gloria administration said the calculations of greenhouse gas emissions were “using the best data available” — the same slippery claim made when Kevin Faulconer was mayor.

This is Gloria’s first major misstep in just his third week. Claiming environmental progress using erroneous baseline data about San Diego greenhouse gas emissions invites doubt about any claim from his administration, especially about the city’s legally binding Climate Action Plan. If “the best data available” is bogus, here’s an idea: Don’t use it.

As Smith reported, for the city’s claims to be true, San Diego would have had a sharp drop in driving or a huge increase in use of transit. Neither happened. The mayor should stop pretending otherwise.