What pandemic? SoCal Thanksgiving travel expected to be second busiest ever, Auto Club predicts

A year after a raging pandemic stifled holiday travel, some 4.4 million Southern Californians are expected to hit the roads or board planes and trains to celebrate Thanksgiving, making it the second highest Thanksgiving travel volume on record, says the Auto Club.

Not surprisingly, travel is expected to soar — by 16 percent — compared to the same five-day travel period last year when COVID-19 vaccines were not yet available. But the number of people expected to leave home for trips of 50 miles or more is not that far off from the record-setting Thanksgiving of 2019 when 4.5 million were traveling for the holiday. That’s a difference of just 3 percent.

Air travel and other forms of transportation such as cruises, buses and trains will experience the steepest increase in volume compared to last year, as more people who are vaccinated feel comfortable mixing with others as they travel to their destinations, the Auto Club concluded. For example, 494,000 Southern Californians are estimated to travel by air, an 82 percent increase over last year, while those choosing to drive — 3.8 million — is projected to be up by 9 percent compared with the same five-day period in 2020.

“This is a remarkable comeback for travel, especially considering that cruises and some other modes of transportation have only recently restarted,” said Filomena Andre, the Auto Club’s vice president for travel products and services. “To help meet consumer demand, AAA is hiring travel advisers.”

But with the sharp rise in travel and the high incidence of people congregating indoors, especially in cold-weather areas of the country, the likelihood of a surge in COVID-19 cases similar to what occurred last year remains a real possibility, say some experts.

“It’s good that people are getting vaccinated. There’s a lot of pent-up demand for people to see families and friends so I can see why it would be near record-breaking,” said Davey Smith, chief of infectious disease research at UC San Diego. “I do think we’re going to have a winter surge, and the first thing that kicked us off last year was Thanksgiving, and I’m sure it’ll kick us off this time.”

Smith pointed out that while the COVID-19 vaccines are quite effective in preventing hospitalization and serious illness, people can still become infected and unknowingly infect others who are more vulnerable and not as well protected because of underlying conditions or certain medications they’re taking.

“Even if you’re vaccinated, think about who you’re going to be visiting, are they immunosuppressed? If so, take stronger precautions,” Smith advised. “If I’m vaccinated and visiting parents who are fully vaccinated, that shouldn’t be too risky, but if I’m going to visit someone who is unvaccinated, you need to think about what that looks like.”

In California, a little more than 60 percent of Californians are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 but the levels of immunization vary widely across the state and the United States. Statewide, hospitalizations and infections have flattened after having declined, but some parts of California are seeing sharp increases. Recent data for San Diego County categorizes it as having a high transmission rate — more than 100 COVID cases per 100,000 people in a week.

The Auto Club is advising those who are traveling to follow the recommendations of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which include wearing masks on any form of public transportation and in some indoor areas, depending on the location.

Corinne McDaniels-Davidson, an epidemiologist and director of the San Diego State University Institute for Public Health, recommends that in addition to vigilant mask-wearing, travelers should consider getting a rapid COVID19 test before they leave home and, if possible, dine outside, thereby “minimizing the shared air you have with people.”

She added, “Vaccines are not a silver bullet and there is still a large percentage of the U.S. population unvaccinated. When we talk about the percentage of eligible people who are fully vaccinated, I’d like to remind people that children do exist and we’ve only been vaccinating children 5 to 11 for a couple of days now and they won’t be fully vaccinated for Thanksgiving.”

Nationwide, AAA is projecting that Thanksgiving will be the third busiest on record, with an estimated 53.4 million travelers, compared with 56 million in 2019 and 53.7 million in 2018. Orlando is expected to be the most popular destination nationally, while San Diego is No. 1 for Southern California travelers.

The approaching holiday weekend also comes at a time when those from Southern California will be paying the highest gas prices ever for this time of year, reports the Auto Club. The average price per gallon for San Diego County is currently $4.56.