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Biden Lead Over Trump Cut To 3 Points After Presidential Debate: IBD/TIPP Poll

Joe Biden's lead over President Donald Trump has narrowed to 2.7 points among likely voters, a new IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll finds. Trump's rise comes despite registered voters seeing Biden as the winner of Tuesday's debate and coming across as more likable by double-digit margins.

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The new IBD/TIPP Poll was conducted after the Trump-Biden presidential debate on Tuesday night but before the early Friday bombshell that President Trump has tested positive for the coronavirus.

Biden Vs. Trump Election Poll

Biden leads President Trump, 48.6% to 45.9%. Another 1.5% say they'll vote for another candidate, while 4% are not sure who they'll support. Biden holds a 48%-38.5% lead among likely independent voters and 92%-4% among Democrats. Trump leads 93%-5.5% among Republicans.

Biden Vs. Trump Debate Reviews

Registered voters who watched or listened to Tuesday's debate thought Biden did better, 44%-33%. Independents saw Biden as the winner, 43%-20%.

Biden was seen as more likable, 54%-34%.

Still, voters gave Trump an edge in debating the Supreme Court (45%-40%) and the economy (47%-44%).

Biden won over voters on other topics: Covid 19 (49%-40%); race (49%-40%); and election integrity (48%-38%).

Biden was seen as looking more presidential (51%-37%) and having a better command of the issues (46%-43%). But Trump was seen as mentally sharper (47%-42%).

After the debate, 19% of registered voters who watched said they switched their vote, with 11% backing Trump and 8% shifting to Biden. Nearly everyone who said they switched to Trump had voted for him in 2016. Half those who switched to Biden had voted for Clinton in 2016. The others included Trump voters, nonvoters and third-party voters.


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Trump Narrows Gaps

The race has tightened somewhat since early September, when an IBD/TIPP poll of registered voters showed Biden with an eight-point edge, 49%-41%. An IBD/TIPP poll of likely voters released on Sept. 21 showed Biden with a 5.6-point lead, 49.5%-43.9%.

Trump's response to protests and unrest over George Floyd's May 25 killing and the summer coronavirus wave appeared to have damaged his reelection prospects. Yet some of that damage may be healing amid the jobs recovery and the ebbing of new coronavirus cases through August and the first half of September. Friday's jobs report showed the unemployment rate falling to 7.9%, despite job cuts by state and local governments.

The fight over the Supreme Court seat opened by the Sept. 18 death of liberal justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg also altered the focus of the presidential race.

How Committed Are Biden And Trump Voters?

President Trump has a slight advantage when it comes to voter intensity. Among registered voters who intend to vote for Trump, 74% back him strongly, vs. 66% among intended Biden voters.

IBD/TIPP finds that 19% of registered voters say they're at least somewhat likely to change their mind before Election Day. That group includes 26% of intended Trump voters and 13% of intended Biden voters.

Despite Biden's polling edge, just 36% of voters expect him to win, while 45% think Trump will prevail. Meanwhile, 46% think most of their neighbors will vote for Trump, while 36% think their neighbors will mostly back Biden.

Demographic Groups

Trump leads among white voters, 53-42%. Pew Research says Trump won among white voters in 2016, 54%-39%.

However, Trump could do better among Hispanic voters than his 28%-66% deficit in 2016. He trails Biden among Hispanics, 36.5%-60%. Black voters prefer Biden, 76%-15%.

Biden has a solid lead among voters age 18-24 (70%-21%) and voters 65 and up (51.5%-44%). Trump won among senior citizens in 2016, 53%-44%, Pew says. That may partly reflect disapproval over Trump's handling of the pandemic, with death rates high among seniors. The September IBD/TIPP Poll found that 35% of American senior citizens gave Trump positive marks for his handling of the coronavirus, while 57% disapproved of his performance.

Trump leads among voters age 25-44 (48%-46%) and 45-64 (52%-43%).

The new IBD/TIPP election poll reflects an online survey of 1,221 registered voters, including 1,021 likely voters, from Sept. 30-Oct. 1. The credibility interval is +/- 3.3 percentage points for the registered-voter sample and 3.5 percentage points for the likely voter sample.

The weighted likely voter sample reflects 411 Democrats, 403 Republicans and 201 independent voters.

Starting Oct. 12, the IBD/TIPP Presidential Tracking Poll will provide daily updates of the Biden vs. Trump race. TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's polling partner, shifted to an online poll amid the coronavirus pandemic. However, the presidential tracking poll will rely primarily on live phone interviews that will be supplemented with online surveys.

The IBD/TIPP Poll, one of only two polls to predict Trump's victory in 2016, has been recognized as the most accurate pollster in recent elections.

Please follow Jed Graham on Twitter @IBD_JGraham for coverage of economic policy and financial markets.

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