Topline
Registered voters are almost evenly split on whether they would support the national 15-week abortion ban introduced by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a new Morning Consult/Politico poll finds—though the bill faces long odds of passing, as even many GOP senators have signaled they’re against the federal restrictions.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) speaks during a news conference to discuss the introduction of a ... [+]
Key Facts
The poll, conducted September 16-18 among 2,005 registered voters, found a narrow 51% majority would support Congress passing a 15-week abortion ban with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother—as Graham’s bill has—while 49% oppose it.
Republicans were most likely to support the bill, with 70% supporting it, versus 38% of Democrats and 45% of Independents.
Men were notably more likely to back the federal restrictions, with 55% supporting the legislation versus 48% of women.
More voters were strongly opposed to the bill than strongly in favor of it, however (33% versus 26%).
The 51% support for the ban comes even as only 35% of respondents said they believed the federal government should decide abortion policy, while 42% want it to be left up to the states (23% had no opinion).
Contra
Voters were more likely to want Congress to safeguard abortion rights, with 60% of respondents saying they would strongly or somewhat support a federal law that protects abortion access. A 58% majority of poll respondents want abortion to remain legal in all or most cases, while only 34% want it to be illegal in at least some cases.
What To Watch For
Graham’s 15-week ban appears unlikely to pass Congress even if Republicans were to regain control of the Senate in November, as the bill would need 60 votes to pass and has so far not even garnered support from all GOP senators. At least 15 GOP senators have signaled they could vote against the bill, with many saying they don’t think Congress should impose any abortion measures. “I think most of the members of my conference prefer that this be dealt with at the state level,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told reporters in response to Graham’s legislation. The bill has divided Republicans, as many have shied away from coming out too strongly against extreme abortion restrictions in recent weeks so as to not alienate voters, who overwhelmingly oppose harsh abortion bans.
Key Background
Graham’s bill is the first national abortion ban to be introduced since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, sparking widespread controversy as abortion rights advocates have heavily decried any federal restrictions. The bill would ban abortions after 15 weeks into the pregnancy with exceptions for rape, incest against a minor and when the life of the pregnant person is at risk, but not for non-life threatening medical emergencies or fetal abnormalities. The bill is more restrictive than a 20-week ban Graham had previously championed, but less extreme than a six-week ban Republican senators have been weighing but have so far not formally introduced. Only a very small percentage of abortions—only 2% in 2019, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention—take place after 15 weeks, but abortion rights advocates have argued the procedure should remain legal after that point for people who can’t get abortions sooner because of delayed access to care, health complications emerging later in pregnancy or not realizing they’re pregnant. Polling has historically shown Americans are more supportive of 15-week bans than they are of more restrictive abortion measures, though other recent polls taken after the Supreme Court’s ruling have found a narrow majority oppose them.
Further Reading
Voters Are Divided on Lindsey Graham’s 15-Week Abortion Ban (Morning Consult)
Lindsey Graham Introduces National Abortion Ban—Here’s What It Would Do (Forbes)
