Patriots promise Ukraine its first defence against ultra-fast Russian missiles

AT ABOUT 15:30 on January 14th, as millions of Ukrainians were relaxing at home after Saturday lunch, a Tupolev Tu-22M3 warplane hovering over Russia’s Kursk region fired a Kh-22 missile, equipped with a 950kg warhead, towards Ukraine. Half an hour later the missile, designed to destroy aircraft carriers, struck an apartment block in Dnipro, a city in central Ukraine. The attack killed at least 46 people, burying them and some survivors under nine floors of rubble.

Ukraine has no weapons capable of shooting down missiles like the Kh-22, which can reach supersonic speeds of more than 5,000kph. But that will soon change. In the coming weeks Ukraine is set to receive as many as four MIM-104 Patriot systems. America and Germany each recently agreed to provide Ukraine with one Patriot battery. On January 17th about 100 Ukrainian troops, the number needed to operate a single battery, began training on the Patriots at an American army base in Oklahoma. A few days later the Netherlands signalled that it would deliver two of its own Patriot batteries to Ukraine. Time matters. Ukraine’s generals believe that Russia is preparing to mount a new offensive this spring, and perhaps even earlier.

The American-made Patriot is the West’s most advanced missile- and air-defence system. Its range, of up to 160km, is much greater than that of the NASAMs and IRIS-T systems, of which Ukraine received several from America and Germany last year. The Patriot system can track dozens of targets at once. It would also be the first weapon in Ukraine’s arsenal capable of knocking down ballistic missiles. These continue to pose a threat to Ukraine. Although Russia’s own stocks of ballistic missiles are dwindling, the country hopes to purchase hundreds more from Iran. The prospect of further Iranian involvement in the war is one reason why America, which had been reluctant to provide Ukraine with Patriots, eventually decided to do so.

So far Ukraine’s air defence has relied largely on S-300 batteries, hundreds of which Ukraine inherited from the Soviet Union. But the S-300 is both less accurate and less advanced than systems like the Patriots, the IRIS-T, or the NASAMs, which can share radar and target data. Ukraine may also be running low on the interceptor missiles used by the S-300s. Sourcing the PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles fired by the Patriot system from America and other NATO countries will pose less of a problem.

The Patriots have already shown their mettle against ultra-fast rockets. Saudi Arabia has recently used the system to down Iranian ballistic missiles fired by Houthi insurgents from Yemen. But they will provide only partial coverage. Each battery can protect a large city or key infrastructure site, but no more. The Patriots are also expensive. A single interceptor costs some $4m, about 200 times more than the Shahed-136 drones Russia regularly launches against Ukraine. But Ukraine has other means of knocking down the Iranian-made drones, ranging from the S-300 to anti-aircraft Gepard tanks. Officials in Kyiv say they would use the Patriots only against high-priority targets like ballistic missiles, which other air-defence systems cannot intercept.

The IRIS-T and the NASAMs are already “changing the philosophy” of Ukraine’s air and missile defence, says a Ukrainian air-force official: “They give us huge flexibility in deployment.” But what makes the Patriots doubly important is that they strengthen the links between Ukraine and NATO, says Oleksii Reznikov, the defence minister. “In the future we plan to integrate this system in the NATO air- and missile-defence system,” he says. “This will bring us closer to NATO, to our membership in the alliance.”

NATO membership is still not on the table for Ukraine. The alliance has yet to offer the country an official roadmap to accession. But the importance of the Patriot deliveries—as an expression of NATO’s commitment to Ukraine’s defence, and as Ukraine’s best protection against ballistic missiles—has not been lost on the Kremlin. Russia has called the planned shipments a “provocation” and warned of unspecified “consequences”. Not for the first time, Ukraine and NATO will have called Russia’s bluff. ■