The Iowa Poll tackled dozens of topics in 2021. Here are 9 big takeaways.
From a potential 2024 presidential matchup to whether the state's residents really are "Iowa nice," Iowans have weighed in on dozens of topics in this year’s slate of Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Polls.
Selzer & Co. conducted four polls this year, in March, June, September and November. The polls focused heavily on politics, especially Iowans' opinions of their elected officials as they continue to navigate the COVID-19 pandemic. But the polls also took on other topics such as the John Deere worker strike.
After a year’s worth of data, here are some of the major takeaways.
Gov. Kim Reynolds enters 2022 — and her likely reelection campaign — with a majority of Iowans supporting her.
Gov. Kim Reynolds' job approval rating was underwater early in the year, with more people in March disapproving than approving for the first time since she became governor.
But her approval rating ticked above 50% in June and has stayed there ever since, despite Democrats' ire for her response to the pandemic, education policy and other topics.
Reynolds, a Republican, pushed for in-person school early this year and later signed a law removing schools' ability to implement mask mandates. The law is on hold during a legal challenge. She also ended Iowa's participation in federal unemployment programs early. While she has encouraged Iowans to get vaccinated against COVID-19, she has joined fellow Republican leaders in a series of lawsuits against the Biden administration's proposed vaccination mandates.
Her decisions have won strong support from Republicans but produced outcry among Democrats.
Reynolds started the 2021 polls with a March approval rating at 46%, tied for the lowest point during her time in office. But her approval rating rose to 51% in June and remained above 50% for the remainder of the year, peaking as high as 53% in September before returning to 51% in November.
On specific issues, she has received her highest marks on her handling of the economy, with 56% approval in the November Iowa Poll. Her handling of the pandemic and education also ended the year with a majority of Iowans in support, at 52% apiece.
After the November poll, J. Ann Selzer, the president of Selzer & Co., described Reynolds' numbers as "steady as she goes."
Reynolds has yet to announce her reelection campaign, but she is widely expected to run in 2022 for another term.
President Joe Biden is struggling in Iowa — a state he lost in 2020.
President Joe Biden hasn't had a net positive job approval rating in Iowa since March, when 47% of Iowans approved of his performance and 44% disapproved.
In September, he saw a steep drop in his approval rating, with just 31% of Iowans approving of how he was handling his job. Sixty-two percent said they disapproved, and 7% said they were not sure.
The poll was the first after Biden oversaw the final U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan as the Taliban quickly seized control of the country. Just 22% of Iowans said they approved of his handling of Afghanistan, his worst rating among several policy areas in the poll.
His approval rating increased just slightly, to 33%, in November.
Meanwhile, the November poll also showed Biden losing by 11 percentage points in a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup with former President Donald Trump among likely voters. Trump won Iowa in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, beating Biden by 8.2 percentage points in 2020 despite losing nationwide.
In the November poll, Biden won support among 95% of Democrats — slightly better than the 91% Trump earned among Republicans. But independents favored Trump by 8 percentage points, 45% to 37%.
Neither Trump nor Biden has formally announced a campaign. Biden has said multiple times he intends to seek reelection and Trump has openly flirted with a third bid for the White House.
Iowans still like former President Donald Trump, though a 2024 Iowa caucus win isn't certain.
Trump has continued to poll strongly in Iowa a year after losing the 2020 election.
The September Iowa Poll showed 53% of Iowans had a favorable view of Trump and 45% had an unfavorable view. That was his best showing in any Iowa Poll.
Americans tend to view presidents more favorably in retrospect than they do while in office, Gallup polling has shown.
The November Iowa Poll found Trump leading comfortably in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup with Biden among likely voters. However, 61% of all Iowa Republicans said they are more aligned with the party compared to 26% who said they are more aligned with Trump. Selzer said that "opens the door a bit" as Republican caucus challengers materialize.
Trump drew thousands of people to the Iowa State Fairgrounds during an October rally, where he endorsed U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley's reelection campaign and joked about a potential new campaign slogan but stopped short of announcing a reelection bid.
Iowa Democrats have work to do ahead of the 2022 election.
This year's Iowa Polls found Democratic challengers for the state's U.S. Senate and gubernatorial contests have yet to introduce themselves to a large swath of Iowans, representing a challenge as they seek to unseat incumbent officeholders.
Former U.S. Rep. Abby Finkenauer, who is running for the Democratic nomination to challenge Grassley, was viewed favorably by 30% of Iowans and unfavorably by 28% of Iowans in a September Iowa Poll. But a plurality of Iowans — 42% — said they did not know enough about her to form an opinion.
Grassley led Finkenauer 55% to 37% in that poll among likely voters, an early test of a potential general election matchup should Finkenauer win the Democratic primary next year.
Iowa's two highest-profile Democratic candidates for governor are even less familiar to Iowans.
Ten percent of Iowans in the September poll said they had a favorable view of Deidre DeJear, a Des Moines businesswoman who lost her 2018 campaign for secretary of state, and 13% had an unfavorable view of her. Far more — 76% — were not sure.
Eleven percent of Iowans in the September poll had a favorable view of Waterloo state Rep. Ras Smith, who is serving his third term in the Legislature, and 15% had an unfavorable view. Another 74% were unsure.
Meanwhile, the same poll found Reynolds was rated favorably by 55% of Iowans and unfavorably by 40%. Just 5% were unsure.
The policy aftershocks from COVID-19 divide Iowans.
From mask requirements to vaccine mandates, coronavirus mitigation measures have been polarizing throughout the pandemic.
A series of Iowa Poll results have shown the division play out in the state.
Support for a new law the Iowa Legislature passed in the spring to ban local mask mandates has been about half-and-half. A June poll found 49% approved of the new law and 46% opposed it. But the September poll found the results had flipped, with 50% of Iowans opposing the law and 47% approving.
A federal court has temporarily blocked the law, although Reynolds has appealed.
Meanwhile, 52% of Iowans said in November that they support a new state law saying employers who require COVID-19 vaccinations must allow exemptions for workers who cite religious or medical reasons. Thirty-nine percent opposed and another 8% were unsure.
The new law, which Reynolds signed in October, also allows Iowans fired for not taking the shot to qualify for unemployment benefits.
The law passed with bipartisan support in the Legislature, but Iowans are divided along political lines. Seventy-five percent of Republicans said they favor the law compared to just 24% of Democrats and 51% of independents, according to the poll.
In the November poll, Iowans also were divided along partisan lines on Reynolds' overall response to the pandemic. Fifty-two percent said they approved of her handling of the pandemic, versus 44% who said they disapproved. That includes 88% of Republicans approving and 87% of Democrats disapproving. Independents were closely split, with 48% approving, 47% disapproving and 5% not sure.
It was among the metrics that improved for Reynolds after the spring: In March, 51% of Iowans had disapproved of Reynolds' handling of the pandemic, versus 47% who approved.
Majority of Iowans don’t support ending abortion.
A majority of Iowans support legalized abortion in Iowa and oppose a proposed constitutional amendment that would specify that the Iowa Constitution doesn't secure a right to abortion.
The findings come as Iowa Republicans continue to push for restrictions on the procedure. At the national level, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on a pair of cases that have the potential to severely curtail abortion rights around the country. Some expect the court to overturn or weaken Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that legalized abortion nationwide.
Fifty-seven percent of Iowans said in the September poll that abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared to 38% who said abortion should be illegal in all or most cases and 5% who weren't sure. That's more support for legalized abortion than when the question was previously asked, in March 2020. Then, 49% said abortion should be legal and 45% said it should be illegal.
And fewer than one-third of Iowans earlier this year supported the Legislature's push for an amendment that says the state constitution does not secure a right to abortion. Just 31% of Iowans favored the proposal in the March 2021 Iowa Poll, compared to 58% who opposed it and 11% who weren't sure.
Iowans supported Deere workers' push for better benefits.
It was the largest Iowa strike in decades.
About 7,000 Iowans in Deere & Co. factories in Ankeny, Davenport, Dubuque, Ottumwa and Waterloo went on strike Oct. 14 after 90% of United Auto Workers members voted down a new collective bargaining agreement. The strike came as Deere celebrated the prospect of record profits. In all, the strike included 10,100 Deere workers in three states.
In the November Iowa Poll, Iowans showed overwhelming support for the workers over Deere.
The poll, taken days before workers voted in support of a new contract to end the strike, found 58% of Iowa adults said they mostly sided with Deere workers. Sixteen percent of respondents said they mostly sided with the employers, while 19% were unsure and 7% supported neither group.
The union members had either a majority or plurality of Iowans' support regardless of political party, age, gender, educational attainment, religious affiliation, income bracket or whether they live in a rural or urban area.
The strike ended Nov. 17, when UAW members approved a new six-year contract that boosts hourly wages by 10% and increases retirement benefits. The company also will keep its health insurance program, for which workers do not pay premiums.
Most Iowans oppose permitless carry of handguns.
Reynolds this spring signed a law making it optional for adults 21 and older to get permits before they buy or carry handguns in Iowa.
The measure was immediately unpopular in the state, with two-thirds of Iowans (67%) saying in a June Iowa Poll that they opposed the measure, versus 30% who said they favored it.
Democrats and gun violence prevention groups have been concerned that the new law rolls back background checks on handgun sales between private citizens. Under previous law, Iowans had to pass a background check to obtain a permit to carry or acquire a handgun before they could legally buy one in a private sale. Iowans now don’t need to show a permit to buy a gun in a private sale.
But in the same poll, a majority of Iowans did support a Republican-backed push to allow Iowans to vote on whether to amend the Iowa Constitution by adding the right to keep and bear arms. Fifty-one percent said they favored the Iowa Legislature's passage of the resolution, versus 43% who were opposed and 6% who weren't sure.
Iowans will vote on the proposed constitutional amendment in next year’s general election. If a majority of Iowans vote in favor of the language, it will be added to the state constitution.
Iowans really are nice, according to Iowans.
Are Iowans really "Iowa nice?"
The November poll found that 58% of Iowans said that in their experience, Iowans are generally nicer than people from other states. Another 36% said there’s generally no difference, and 4% said Iowans are ruder than people from other states.
At least a plurality of every demographic said Iowans are nicer than people in other states, with one exception: those with no religious affiliation. Just 47% of them said Iowans are nicer, the same proportion as said no difference.
Ian Richardson covers the Iowa Statehouse for the Des Moines Register. Reach him at irichardson@registermedia.com, at 515-284-8254, or on Twitter at @DMRIanR.
Stephen Gruber-Miller covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. He can be reached by email at sgrubermil@registermedia.com or by phone at 515-284-8169. Follow him on Twitter at @sgrubermiller.