Iowa Poll: Chuck Grassley leads Abby Finkenauer in test of possible US Senate matchup

Brianne Pfannenstiel
Des Moines Register

Editor's note: This article was published Sept. 21. On Sept. 24, U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley announced he will run for reelection in the 2022.

© Copyright 2021, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.

Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley leads Democrat Abby Finkenauer by 18 percentage points among likely voters in an early test of what could be a marquee matchup in the 2022 midterms.

The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll results show Grassley leads 55% to 37% among likely voters. Another 7% are not sure who they would vote for in a head-to-head matchup, and 1% would not vote.

The results show that Grassley, 88, would enter the race as a strong contender should he choose to seek an eighth term in office. He has not yet said whether he plans to run for reelection.

In June, likely voters were asked if they would vote to reelect Grassley, but the question did not name an opponent. Just 27% said they would vote to reelect him, and 64% said they would prefer “someone new.” But in this poll, against a named opponent, most likely voters prefer Grassley.

“It looked like he had some vulnerability, but a majority of likely voters still view him as a winner,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “Fifty-five percent is not huge, but it's solid at this point.”

Fred Halstead, a 56-year-old poll respondent from Spirit Lake, said he's especially pleased with the way Grassley has supported the state's agricultural economy and the biofuels industry.

Although he said he generally approves of term limits, he would vote for Grassley again should he run in 2022.

U.S. Senate candidate Abby Finkenauer at a Biden campaign event  on Jan. 18, 2020 at Simpson College's Pfeiffer Hall.

"I've just been really pleased with the way he’s represented Iowa and, as far as I’m concerned, Iowa views," said Halstead, a Republican. "Considering the division that’s currently in Congress at the moment, I think he’s been a pretty effective senator." 

The poll of 805 Iowa adults, including 620 likely voters, was conducted Sept. 12 to 15 by Selzer & Co. The questions of all Iowans have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; it’s plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for questions asked of likely voters.

Finkenauer lacks widespread name recognition

Finkenauer is the best-known Democrat to announce plans to seek the seat, though the poll shows she lacks widespread name recognition across the state.

Finkenauer is viewed favorably by 30% of Iowans and unfavorably by 28% of Iowans. That leaves 42% who say they do not know enough about her to form an opinion either way.

Allison Sheesley, a 22-year-old poll respondent from Des Moines, said she doesn’t know much about Finkenauer. But she would like to see Grassley defeated if he were to run again, she said, and would support whichever Democrat is running against him.

“When more names start getting out there, I'll start doing more due diligence,” she said.

Sheesley, a Democrat, said she would like to elect more Democrats who will change the criminal justice system and promote women’s rights.

Finkenauer, 32, served two terms in the Iowa House of Representatives before flipping Iowa’s 1st Congressional District blue in 2018. She served one term in Congress, but lost her reelection bid in 2020 to Republican Ashley Hinson.

She announced in July she would run for the U.S. Senate. In each of her previous campaigns, Finkenauer has emphasized her working class roots and her desire to make the economy work for the middle class. She has accused Grassley of failing to adequately push back against Trump and his supporters when they stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 amid false claims the election was stolen.

Two other Democrats — Dave Muhlbauer, a farmer and former county supervisor, and Glenn Hurst, a doctor and Minden City Council member — have also announced U.S. Senate campaigns.

Jim Carlin, a Republican state senator from Sioux City, has launched a campaign as well, saying he will challenge Grassley in a primary if he does not retire.

More:Will Chuck Grassley keep running? A decision looms as he eyes an 8th term in the US Senate

Grassley has given himself a Nov. 1 deadline by which to decide and announce his reelection intentions.

Primary elections are scheduled for June 7, 2022.

Grassley's job approval ticks up slightly

Grassley’s job approval rating has ticked up 2 percentage points from 45% in June to 47% today. Another 40% disapprove and 13% are not sure.

Though his approval rating has improved slightly, it remains low for Grassley, who has historically had some of the highest job approval ratings in the state, occasionally hitting the 80% threshold.

According to the poll, 51% of Iowans have a favorable view of Grassley. Another 37% have an unfavorable view of him, and 12% are not sure.

Among Republicans, 81% rate him favorably; just 14% of Democrats do.

That’s a “strong” number, Selzer said. But it falls short of the 90% favorability mark Republicans give to Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds in the same poll.

“You just would suspect that means that there are Republicans who feel favorably toward Kim Reynolds but don't toward Chuck Grassley,” Selzer said. “So it causes you to scratch your head. And this comes historically in the context of what I have called his ‘stratospheric’ approval ratings earlier in his career.” 

Carlos Rojas-Neira, a 46-year-old Cedar Rapids resident and poll respondent, said he would vote for Grassley if he were the Republican nominee running against Finkenauer or another Democrat. But he thinks once elected officials are in office for too long they lose their “fire.”

“Once they are comfortable and complacent, they cannot fight really for the values that, at least as a voter and as an American, I want them to fight for,” he said. “I don't think he's performing the best. I think he's kind of missing that fire.”

Rojas-Neira identifies as an independent but typically sides with conservatives, he said. He praised the work Reynolds has done, particularly her handling of the state’s pandemic response.

In the head-to-head matchup with Finkenauer, Grassley leads with men, earning 62% of their vote compared with 32% for Finkenauer. He also wins support from those without a college degree, 63% to 27%. And he carries traditional Republican strongholds like evangelicals 74% to 16% and likely voters who live in rural areas 72% to 25%.

Finkenauer comes closest to Grassley in the 3rd Congressional District, which includes Des Moines and Council Bluffs, but he still leads her there, 50% to 42%. In the 1st District, which Finkenauer represented in Congress, Grassley leads 58% to 35%.

About this poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted September 12-15, 2021, for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 805 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent American Community Survey estimates.  

Questions based on the sample of 805 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Questions based on the subsample of 620 likely voters in the 2022 midterm election have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points or 3.9 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.  

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to the Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited. 

Dive into more details of the latest Iowa Poll

Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.