Omicron fuels 38% spike in daily COVID cases from 172,072 to 238,378: Infections rise more than 500% in Florida, DC and Hawaii and hospitalizations climb - but new study says variant causes 70% fewer hospitalizations than Delta

  • The United States logged a seven-day average coronavirus case count of 168,981 on Wednesurpassing a summer peak of over 165,000 infections
  • That marks the second largest surge in cases since the pandemic began nearly two years ago as the highly contagious Omicron variant has been detected in all 50 states
  • Florida, Washington DC and Hawaii all reported an increase of over 500 percent in new cases on Thursday
  • The largest surges continue to be in New York, Texas and California 
  • Hospitalizations have also risen 11 percent from two weeks prior, as officials warn the virus could affect 140 million people between January and March
  • In response, Dr. Vin Gupta suggested on MSNBC it is time to begin looking at the bioethics of placing a lower priority on the treatment of unvaccinated people
  • Data, though, shows the Omicron variant is relatively mild and is already waning in South Africa

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COVID cases in the US have soared by 38 per cent in the last 24 hours to 238,278 new infections as the Omicron variant continues to spread, with some states seeing cases rocket by up to 670%. 

Thursday's update in infection numbers from Johns Hopkins University saw diagnoses climb from 172,072 for the previous day. Deaths were also up slightly, from 2,093 yesterday to 2,204 today. 

Hospitalizations sit just under 63,000, including almost 16,000 COVID patients receiving intensive care treatment, according to analysis by the New York Times. That is an 11 per cent increase in two weeks, but still sits well below the winter 2020 peak of almost 130,000 Americans in hospital, 30,000 of whom were in ICU. 

Multiple studies published this week have suggested Omicron is far less dangerous than Delta, with a UK Health Security Agency report from Thursday saying the mutant strain is 70 per cent less likely to cause hospitalization than Delta, and 45 per cent less likely to require an emergency room visit. 

Meanwhile, multiple US states have seen 14 day infection rates soar. In Florida, cases are up 509 per cent, in Washington DC, they're up 541 per cent, and in Hawaii they've rocketed by 670 per cent.   

Hawaii saw 74 new confirmed Omicron cases on Wednesday, with Florida and DC each reporting 24 cases of the mutant strain. The US has a total of 2,625 confirmed Omicron cases, according to data scraped from individual states' figures. 

New York continues to have the highest number of new Omicron cases with 442 reported on Thursday, followed by Texas with 394 cases and California, with 358 new cases.

But the true Omicron total is exponentially higher, as only a small number of positive PCR tests are sequenced to identify which strain of COVID has caused a person's infection. The CDC estimates that Omicron now comprises at least 73 per cent of all infections in the United States, and up to 92 per cent in five states including New York and New Jersey. 

The United Kingdom smashed its single day diagnosis rate again on Thursday, with 119,789 new infections, and hospitalizations up by 18 per cent in a week. It is a world-leader in sequencing, and has so-far identified close to 75,000 Omicron infections for a population almost five times smaller than the US. 

Florida, Washington DC and Hawaii have seen COVID cases surge more than 500 percent over the past two weeks

Florida, Washington DC and Hawaii have seen COVID cases surge more than 500 percent over the past two weeks

New York, California and Texas continue to have the most number of cases in the United States

New York, California and Texas continue to have the most number of cases in the United States

The United States logged a seven-day average coronavirus case count of 168,981 on Wednesday, surpassing a summer peak of over 165,000 infections, according to the Washington Post. While worrying, the figure still falls well short of the 249,000 average hit in January 2020. 

That marks the second largest surge in cases since the pandemic began nearly two years ago as the highly contagious Omicron variant has been detected in all 50 states, as well Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico.   

Officials now warn that the virus could infect 140 million people between January and March - 60 percent of all Americans, although 90 per cent of those who catch COVID are predicted to have no symptoms. Three studies published in the last day have confirmed the strain is milder than Delta, and may result in up to 80 per cent fewer hospitalizations. 

Data from South Africa, where the strain was first reported, shows a huge and sudden drop in cases, suggesting Omicron may burn out very quickly. But panic over the new strain continues to prevail across much of the world, with Italy and Spain now ordering people to wear masks outdoors.  

Imperial College London on Wednesday found that Omicron is 40 percent less likely to lead to serious illness than the Delta variant. 

Another study by the University of Edinburgh suggested that the new variant could slash hospitalizations by as much as 65 percent, with a third South African study indicating the potential 80 per cent drop in hospitalizations. 

Both British studies underlined, however, the importance of vaccines with the Imperial study stating the risk of hospitalization for an unvaccinated person was just 10 percent lower for Omicron than with Delta.

According to data from the Centers for Disease Control, just 72.8 percent of all eligible Americans had received their first COVID dose by Wednesday, and 61.7 percent are fully vaccinated.

And of those who are eligible for a booster shot, just 30 percent have received one.

On Wednesday, MSNBC medical analyst Vin Gupta raised eyebrows after suggesting it was time to prioritize hospital treatment for vaccinated patients, because those who haven't had the shot are already taking up so many beds.

'This is where it's controversial, but we need to talk about this, the bioethics of it broadly because this is not the last respiratory pandemic we're going to face,' the doctor told host Joy Reid.

'What do we do with somebody who is unvaccinated who is taking advanced ICU therapies from someone who is vaccinated in the hospital? How do we rank that priority?

On Wednesday, MSNBC medical analyst Vin Gupta, left, suggested it is time to begin looking at the bioethics of placing a lower priority on the treatment of unvaccinated people during a panel discussion on The Reid Out

On Wednesday, MSNBC medical analyst Vin Gupta, left, suggested it is time to begin looking at the bioethics of placing a lower priority on the treatment of unvaccinated people during a panel discussion on The Reid Out

He said medical professionals triage who most deserves an organ transplant and should do the same for COVID care

He said medical professionals triage who most deserves an organ transplant and should do the same for COVID care

'We do it for organs, kidneys, livers, lungs. We say "Did you smoke, did you drink recently?" If you did you're lower on the list, even if you need it.

'We need to start thinking of that model.'  

His comments came after the Reid Out host said she has run out of patience with vaccine hesitant Americans.

'I'm sort of reaching my kind of peak fatigue, mental fatigue level and I'm not even dealing with what the doctor and what you guys are dealing with in real life,' Reid told her panel of medical experts.

'But it's like I know off the top of my head, at least half a dozen people who have gotten COVID, who are vaccinated, but who got it in settings where they were around mixed groups of people who were not necessarily vaccinated.'

'The unvaccinated are spreading this thing and it's mutating, let's be frank, because of the unvaccinated,' she said before asking Gupta what he thought should be done about the Omicron variant, which is leading to an increase in breakthrough cases in those who have already gotten both doses of the COVID vaccine.

It carries mutations that are believed to enable it to more easily evade human antibodies. 

In response to Reid's question, Gupta said: 'We have to move away from the paradigm of even thinking about caseloads day over day because it's overwhelming. It's psychologically depressing, it's discouraging.'

The number of daily COVID cases is expected to more than double come January, with the Omicron variant predicted to cause about 140 new cases come March 2022

The number of daily COVID cases is expected to more than double come January, with the Omicron variant predicted to cause about 140 new cases come March 2022

Daily deaths are expected to increase as well and peak at around 2,800 deaths by mid-February. The rate is predicted to be lower than last year's winter surge

Daily deaths are expected to increase as well and peak at around 2,800 deaths by mid-February. The rate is predicted to be lower than last year's winter surge

Hundreds of cars lined up at a COVID-19 testing site at Tropical Park in Miami on Tuesday as Florida saw a 509 percent increase in COVID cases

Hundreds of cars lined up at a COVID-19 testing site at Tropical Park in Miami on Tuesday as Florida saw a 509 percent increase in COVID cases

FDA authorizes Merck's at-home antiviral COVID-19 pill - a day after giving Pfizer's oral drug the go-ahead

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Thursday authorized Merck's antiviral pill for COVID-19, after giving the go-ahead to a similar treatment from Pfizer Inc. a day earlier.

Merck's drug, molnupiravir, developed with Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, was shown to reduce hospitalizations and deaths by around 30% in a clinical trial of high-risk individuals early in the course of the illness. 

The agency authorized the oral drug for the treatment of mild-to-moderate Covid in adults who are at risk for severe disease. It will also carry a warning against use during pregnancy, and women of childbearing age should use birth control during treatment. 

On Wednesday, US health regulators issued emergency authorization for Pfizer's Paxlovid, a pill that is available by prescription only and should be initiated as soon as possible after diagnosis of Covid and within five days of symptom onset. 

 

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detected back in November, official figures show its COVID cases have fallen for the last five days in a row, dipping 21 percent in one week by Wednesday, one week after 21,099 new cases were recorded. 

Over the past few days, hospitalizations also seem to be leveling off at just below 400 admissions a day - compared to a height of 2,000 when Delta took hold. 

At the same time, data from South Africa suggest Omicron cases are more likely to be mild, in part thanks to protection from vaccines and previous infections. 

And the study by Imperial, one of Britain's leading universities, found that for someone who has been recently infected, the chance of hospitalization was slashed by 69 per cent in both vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

The data came just moments after a similar study conducted in Scotland found the risk of being hospitalized with Omicron was 65 percent lower than with Delta.

University of Edinburgh researchers said Omicron was as severe as Delta they would have seen around 47 people in hospital in Scotland, yet so far there are only 15.  

Dr Jim McMenamin, the national Covid incident director for Public Health Scotland, labeled the findings a 'qualified good news story', but said that it was 'important we don't get ahead of ourselves'.

He said: 'The potentially serious impact of Omicron on a population cannot be underestimated. 

'And a smaller proportion of a much greater number of cases that might ultimately require treatment can still mean a substantial number of people who may experience severe Covid infections that could lead to potential hospitalization.' 

But Professor Mark Woolhouse, of the University of Edinburgh, said it was heavily caveated at the moment. The data is based on a small number of cases and didn't have much data on those most at risk, the over 65s. 

 

About one month since Omicron was first detected in South Africa, the country's Omicron-driven Covid wave appears to be fading, with cases falling 22% in the last week

About one month since Omicron was first detected in South Africa, the country's Omicron-driven Covid wave appears to be fading, with cases falling 22% in the last week

Hospitalizations in South Africa also seem to be leveling off at just below 400 admissions a day - compared to a height of 2,000 when Delta took hold

Hospitalizations in South Africa also seem to be leveling off at just below 400 admissions a day - compared to a height of 2,000 when Delta took hold

Omicron sufferers are 40% less likely to be admitted to hospital than those with Delta: British study of 300,000 finds variant IS milder than feared 

British scientists have found that Omicron sufferers are 40 percent less likely to be admitted to hospital with serious illness than those with Delta.     

Scientists at Imperial College London said that Britons who catch Omicron are between 15 and 20 per cent less likely to be admitted than those who get Delta.

But the real-world analysis, of more than 300,000 people between December 1 and 14, found the chance of having to stay in hospital overnight was even lower, with a reduced risk of between 40 and 45 per cent. 

That study came after a second analysis from Scotland on Wednesday found that the risk of being hospitalized with Omicron was 65 percent less than with Delta.   

The study by Imperial, one of Britain's leading universities, found that even an unvaccinated person who has never had Covid and has no immunity, there was a 10 percent lower risk of being hospitalized with Omicron compared to Delta.

For someone who has been recently infected, the chance of hospitalization was slashed by 69 per cent in both vaccinated and unvaccinated people. 

Professor Neil Ferguson said: 'You can see in London, we are getting a lot more people hospitalized. Not for very long, probably not with very severe illness.

'And that's not a reflection of Omicron versus Delta — that was already true for Delta infections, that they're less severe than they were last year because there's a lot of immunity in the population.

'The challenge is, if there's enough of them it still poses quite a challenge to the NHS. We're not talking about anything like what we saw last year with over-flowing intensive care units and ventilator beds.'

The notoriously gloomy expert confirmed he expected the Omicron wave to be milder, with patients discharged from hospitals quicker and fewer Covid deaths, but warned there could still be significant pressure on the National Health Service (NHS).

He also warned that if infections are 40 per cent higher than they were with Delta then that could offset any reduction in severity. 

The data came just moments after a similar study conducted in Scotland found the risk of being hospitalized with Omicron was 65 percent less than with Delta.

University of Edinburgh researchers said Omicron was as severe as Delta they would have seen around 47 people in hospital in Scotland, yet so far there are only 15.  

Dr Jim McMenamin, the national Covid incident director for Public Health Scotland, labeled the findings a 'qualified good news story', but said that it was 'important we don't get ahead of ourselves'.

He said: 'The potentially serious impact of Omicron on a population cannot be underestimated. 

'And a smaller proportion of a much greater number of cases that might ultimately require treatment can still mean a substantial number of people who may experience severe Covid infections that could lead to potential hospitalisation.' 

But Professor Mark Woolhouse, of the University of Edinburgh, said it was heavily caveated at the moment. The data is based on a small number of cases and didn't have much data on those most at risk, the over 65s.  

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As COVID cases soar across the U.S., health experts have predicted things will get worse in 2022 as the Omicron variant is expected to cause 140 million new infections from January to March, infecting 60 percent of all Americans, the majority of which will be asymptomatic cases. 

Researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington updated their COVID-19 model and expect the virus to hit the US hard come January, peaking at 2.8 million new cases a day by January 28. 

'We are expecting an enormous surge in infections ... so, an enormous spread of Omicron,' IHME director Dr. Chris Murray said told USA Today

'Total infections in the U.S. we forecast are going from about 40 percent of the U.S. having been infected so far, to having in the next two to three months, 60 percent of the U.S. getting infected with Omicron.' 

Despite the surge, experts believe the new infections will ultimately lead to fewer deaths and hospitalizations than the deadly Delta variant, as Omicron is believed to be a more infectious but less severe variant.

Still, Dr. Anthony Fauci has now urged Americans to disinvite unvaccinated people from Christmas gatherings as the fast-spreading COVID-19 Omicron variant fuels a surge in infections nationwide.

'We're dealing with a serious enough situation now that if there's an unvaccinated person, I would say, 'I'm very sorry, but not this time. Maybe another time when this is all over,'' said Fauci in an interview with MSNBC on Tuesday night. 

President Joe Biden has also promised to deliver 500 million COVID tests to Americans - but has not yet  signed a contract to buy them or set up a website so that people can place orders. 

'That's not a plan - it's a hope,' Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, told The New York Time .

'If those tests came in January and February, that could have an impact, but if they are spread out over 10 to 12 months, I'm not sure what kind of impact it is going to have.' 

It is not even known how many tests will be immediately available or how quickly they can be shipped out to American homes, according to new projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. 

Amazon, Walgreens and CVS have already imposed limits on how many tests each customer can buy because of the surging demand.

The president is now reportedly also considering changing the isolation recommendations for vaccinated individuals so that they can return to work quicker after they get a breakthrough case.

At her press briefing on Monday, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said quarantine guidance is under discussion, but Biden will defer to the government's medical experts.

'Given the spread of Omicron, given the transmissibility of Omicron, of course they're continuing to look at a range of steps,' she said.

Then on Tuesday, Fauci suggested on CNN that health care workers who test positive for COVID may be able to return in less than 10 das as long as they wear a mask and are asymptomatic, and Delta Airlines CEO Ed Bastian co-signed a letter asking Rochelle Walensky, the director of the CDC, to reconsider its isolation guidelines for the fully vaccinated, according to Bloomberg.

He wrote that even though Omicron is spreading quicker than previous variants it is 'likely less virulent.'

'To address the potential impact of the current isolation policy, we propose a five-day isolation from symptom onset for those who experience a breakthrough infection,' Bastian wrote, along with Henry Ting, the airline's chief health officer and Carlos del Rio, a professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Emory University who serves as a medical adviser to the company.

Some experts have already suggested the CDC's 10 day quarantine period is probably too long for vaccinated and boosted people with breakthrough cases.

'Want 100 percent assurance? Sure do 10 days,' Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University School of Public Health, tweeted recently, but noted that he advises his friends to take a rapid antigen test after five days from exposure and if it's negative it's 'reasonable to assume they're no longer contagious.' 

Meanwhile in Europe, several countries announced on Thursday they are introducing new COVID restrictions , with Spain making it compulsory to wear a face mask outdoors again and Belgium banning shopping in groups of more than two.   

Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and Belgium have also re-imposed partial or full lockdowns or other social distancing measures in recent days, and Germany's health minister said he had not ruled out a full lockdown closing all but non-essential businesses.  

Italy and France are now also considering further lockdown measures. 

COVID cases in South Africa's ground zero fall rapidly one month after outbreak - as new model predicts that America is on a collision course to see 140 million infections in the next three months 

Promising data from South Africa, the world's first Omicron hotspot, suggest that the country's Omicron-driven Covid wave is fading after just one month.

After seeing a 1,800 percent increase in infections from late November through mid-December, cases appear to have peaked nationally at about 27,000 on December 15.

Cases have fallen in the country for the last five days in a row. Between December 15 and December 22, the case rate has dropped by about 22 percent.

At the same time, data from South Africa suggests that Omicron cases are more likely to be mild, in part because vaccinated and previously infected people who catch the variant have protection from severe disease.

In the U.S., new Covid cases are rising sharply with about three in four cases nationwide caused by Omicron.

On Wednesday, the US recorded a staggering 238,378 new daily infections, and 2,024 new deaths. Since the start of the pandemic, the US has recorded 51.5 million cases of COVID-19 and 812,069 deaths. 

The Omicron variant now accounts for 73 percent of new cases in the US and pushes Europe to the brink of fresh lockdowns. In hard-hit states like New York, the variant is estimated to account for more than 90 percent of cases. So far, it has been confirmed in 2,756 cases and accounts for at least one death in a man in Texas.  

Predictions from the University of Washington suggest the U.S. could see 140 million Omicron infections from January through March, in an enormous yet short and mild wave.

About one month since Omicron was first detected in South Africa, the country's Omicron-driven Covid wave appears to be fading, with cases falling 22% in the last week

About one month since Omicron was first detected in South Africa, the country's Omicron-driven Covid wave appears to be fading, with cases falling 22% in the last week

The Omicron variant, first identified in South Africa and Botswana in late November, has quickly become the dominant variant in the U.S.

Omicron is now causing about 73 percent of new Covid cases nationwide, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates released on Monday.

Last week, Omicron was only causing 13 percent of new Covid cases, suggesting that the variant can grow more than five-fold within a week.

In some states - including New York, Florida, Texas, and others - Omicron is already causing more than 90 percent of new Covid cases.

While the U.S. is still in the early stages of its Omicron surge, data from South Africa suggest that this Covid wave may be more short-lived than those caused by past variants.

Omicron may not have originated in South Africa, but the country became ground zero for this variant as it reported a rapid case increase in late November through mid-December.

The country saw a meteoric rise in infections, from 670 to 11,800 a day (up 1,800 percent) in the space of just two weeks.

In recent days, however, South Africa's case rate appears to have leveled off.

Cases peaked nationally at 26,976 on December 15, and have now fallen for the last five days in a row.

On December 22, South Africa reported 21,099 new cases - a drop of 22 percent from the previous week.

South African scientist Dr Michelle Groome said in a press briefing Wednesday that infections are now leveling off in three of the country's nine provinces, after peaking in Gauteng about a week ago.

While experts had worried that a deadly wave of hospitalizations would follow the rise in cases, hospitalization rates in South Africa have continued to be lower than in past waves.

Over the past few days, hospitalizations also seem to be leveling off at just below 400 admissions a day - compared to a height of 2,000 when Delta took hold.

Deaths in South Africa are just a fraction of the levels when Delta took hold, and have not gone above 100 a day during the Omicron wave.

The country is reporting an average of 50 new deaths a day, compared to 600 deaths a day at the peak of the Delta wave.

Some experts, such as Chris Whitty, Britain's chief medical officer, have said that the low patient numbers may be attributed to South Africa's younger population, as young people have a lower risk of severe Covid.

South Africa also has high levels of immunity from past Covid infections - according to some estimates, over 50 percent of the population had Covid antibodies from a past infection in summer 2021.

While Omicron is more likely to reinfect patients who previously had Covid, antibodies from past infection can protect patients from severe disease.

Plus, about 30 percent of South Africans have received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine, according to Our World in Data.

'All indications are that we've seen the end of the — that we've surpassed the peak of infections in Gauteng,' Groome said Wednesday.

'This is encouraging and quite optimistic in terms of the decreasing trends in case numbers.'

'But I think we really do need to be cognizant that… people are now traveling, and there may be changes in terms of the number of people that may be testing and so some of the lower numbers may be due to the holiday season.'

In addition, Groome and other experts have noted that there is typically a lag of two weeks or more between infections and severe illness.

As a result, hospitalizations and deaths may continue to rise in South Africa over the coming weeks even as case numbers fall.

During the Omicron wave in the U.S., daily Covid cases are expected to more than double and the country may see 140 million new infections by March 2022

During the Omicron wave in the U.S., daily Covid cases are expected to more than double and the country may see 140 million new infections by March 2022

Daily deaths are expected to increase and peak at around 2,800 deaths by mid-February - a lower peak than last winter's surge thanks to protection from vaccines

Daily deaths are expected to increase and peak at around 2,800 deaths by mid-February - a lower peak than last winter's surge thanks to protection from vaccines

Still, the drop in cases could be a promising sign for the U.S., currently in the early weeks of its Omicron wave.

The U.S. is now averaging over 160,000 new Covid cases a day, according to data from Johns Hopkins - a 50 percent increase from early December.

In some Omicron hotspots where the variant is already causing over 90 percent of new cases, infections have risen rapidly in recent weeks.

The case rate in New York City has more than tripled in the past week - from 295 new cases for every 100,000 people on December 12 to 956 new cases per 100,000 on December 19.

Washington, D.C. and surrounding areas are also reporting record-breaking case numbers.

D.C. is now reporting more than 1,000 new Covid cases a day - three times higher than the city's case peak at any other point during the pandemic.

Cases will continue rising from here, according to new modeling predictions from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.

According to IHME, Omicron is expected to cause 140 million new infections from January to March 2022.

The U.S. could peak at 2.8 million new cases a day in late January, the model says.

'We are expecting an enormous surge in infections ... so, an enormous spread of Omicron,' IHME director Dr Chris Murray told USA Today.

'Total infections in the U.S. we forecast are going from about 40 percent of the U.S. having been infected so far, to having in the next two to three months, 60 percent of the U.S. getting infected with Omicron.'

IHME predicts that the majority of these infections will be asymptomatic or mild, however, as the vast majority of Americans are protected through vaccination or prior infection.

As a result, IHME researchers warned that total Omicron infections will go underreported, since many people will not feel sick or seek out testing.

Murray said that while the forecast may be pessimistic, it is within the area of possibility based on the current information scientists have on the Omicron variant.

 

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