Arizona's water supply could face catastrophic cuts by 2026 if something doesn't change

Opinion: The risk of catastrophic shortages at Lake Mead is simply too high for Arizona not to join the Drought Contingency Plan, which aims to minimize it.

Joanna Allhands
The Republic | azcentral.com
The Hoover Dam as seen in June 2015.

Sound the alarm.

The Bureau of Reclamation has released new projections about Lake Mead, which provides about 40 percent of Arizona’s water supply.

And if we repeat the hydrology from 1988-2015 – where dry years were punctuated by a few wet ones, not a great scenario but certainly not the worst case – Lake Mead has a one in five chance of dropping to 1,000 feet of elevation before 2026.

That means we've already taken big cuts

That should give you goosebumps, because it doesn’t just mean significant cuts to the water supply on which Pinal County agriculture and the state water bank relies. (That scenario, which will play out when the lake hits 1,075 feet, is already likely to happen in the next year or two).

If Lake Mead drops to 1,000 feet, that means massive cuts have already hit the water supplies fueling Arizona cities, and we’ll need to cut even more to keep the lake from spiraling into dead pool, where water levels have fallen so low that none can leave the lake.

That is a horrifying prospect.

And let me repeat this: There’s a one in five chance of it happening sometime in the next few years if something doesn’t change.

DCP won't prevent any shortages

Obviously, something needs to change. Quickly.

Luckily, there’ s a plan taking shape to lower the risk of the lake hitting those critically low elevations. It’s called the Drought Contingency Plan (DCP), and it requires that everyone – from Arizona to Nevada to, yes, even California – leave additional water in Lake Mead, far beyond what we already are doing voluntarily.

Here’s the bad news:

Reclamation says that if the plan was in place, it wouldn’t lower the risk of a shortage being declared. In fact, even with the DCP, Lake Mead likely will hit 1,075 feet before 2026, cutting water from the state’s lowest-priority water users (mostly Pinal County farmers, though it wouldn’t be limited to them).

That will hurt.

But here’s the good news: It would significantly lower the likelihood of the lake reaching critically low levels, requiring heftier cuts from cities and other higher-priority water users.

But we need this insurance policy

And that’s an insurance policy we really can’t live without. Because here’s the thing:

Arizona has junior priority status on the river. Meaning that when cuts happen – and they’re going to happen, because seven states and Mexico are using more water than the Colorado River produces – we’re first in line to bear them. And they get more severe for us the lower Lake Mead falls.

You’d think Arizona would be doing everything we can to ensure other states share in this pain.

But here’s the irony: While Nevada and California – the other two states that rely on Lake Mead – are ready to sign DCP, we’re still hemming and hawing.

That’s not smart.

Arizona has a lot of work to do

Reclamation Commissioner Brenda Burman more or less told water experts last week – nicely, but still – that if Arizona doesn’t get on board with this plan, there will be tremendous pressure to move forward without us. Arizona, because of its junior status, will be forced to absorb the majority of cuts and fend for itself with only the water we already have stored in state, which obviously won’t last us long.

I can’t type AROOGAH large enough to tell you how alarming this is (not to mention disappointing for a state that historically has been a water-policy innovator).

There is a silver lining, at least.

A new group is forming to help work out how Arizona might make the necessary deals among higher- and lower-priority water users to mitigate the effects of DCP (because, remember, signing on to this deal will require heftier cuts among lower-priority users, like Pinal County farmers).

They have A LOT of work to do in a few months, because the goal is to finish this process by the end of the year so the Legislature can vote on DCP as soon as the session starts in January. (And, yes, the goal is to have unanimous support in the Senate and House to send a message that Arizona really does intend to play ball, not go it alone.)

Here's how you can get involved

I can’t stress what kind of lift this is going to be.

The good news is the workgroup will have diverse membership, and unlike the meetings the governor convened last year, these will be public, with ample opportunity for people to offer ideas. (Its first meeting is July 26, and before that, there's a question-and-answer session July 10.)

But even if all the details aren’t worked out by early next year – and they likely won’t – DCP still needs Arizona’s enthusiastic thumbs-up.

Even though it is sure to cause many of us pain.

The reality is water shortages at Lake Mead are looming, and if we don’t do more to mitigate the risk of something catastrophic happening, pain for many will turn into agony for all.

Reach Allhands at joanna.allhands@arizonarepublic.com.

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