Phoenix could feel more like Baghdad by 2050, a new climate study says

Priscilla Totiyapungprasert
The Republic | azcentral.com
Approximately 200 people gathered in St. Vincent de Paul's Human Services Campus Dining Room at 1075 W. Jackson St. to seek respite from the heat outdoors on June 29, 2019.

At first glance, Phoenix shares little in common with Baghdad, the capital and largest city in Iraq. But while they may differ on language and culture, there's at least one similarity people in both cities endure: dry, intense heat on a planet that's only getting hotter.

And in 30 more years, Phoenix might feel more like the desert cities in Iraq, where temperatures can climb over 120 degrees Fahrenheit during summer heat waves.

A new study from ETH Zürich analyzed how climate change is impacting major cities around the world. The study used climate model projections to pair 520 cities and their climate forecast for 2050 with another city's current climate.

By 2050, scientists said, Salt Lake City would resemble Las Vegas, and Las Vegas would resemble Phoenix. On the West coast, San Diego could feel a lot more like another coastal city more than 6,000 miles away: Tripoli, Libya.

Human activities, from burning fossil fuels to deforestation, are already heating up the planet, causing warmer summers and winters. In the not-so-distant future, cities in the northern hemisphere will have climates more like cities 620 miles to their south today, the study's senior author, Tom Crowther, told National Geographic.

How far off from Baghdad is Phoenix right now? Average highs from May to September in Baghdad range from 98 to 112 degrees, peaking in July, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Baghdad receives virtually no rainfall in the summer.

HEAT, DROUGHT, FIRE: Climate change already affects the Southwest

Average highs in the same period in Phoenix range from 94 to 106 degrees. 

To help people visualize the impact of climate change within their lifetime, the research team created an online map of current versus future cities. The map shows the biggest projected temperature spikes in northern latitudes.

Researchers hope their work will help city planners better prepare for the future. As desert regions from the U.S. Southwest to the Middle East become hotter and drier, scientists say there will be severe consequences that will test the regions' ability to provide food, water and cooling.

William Thompson (left) receives water and toiletries from Phoenix Rescue Mission. Thompson has been homeless on- and off-again for the past several years. During the summer, when people are most at risk for heat-related death, the Christian nonprofit distributes water and toiletries to homeless people in the Phoenix area. May 3, 2019. Priscilla Totiyapungprasert / The Republic.

According to the U.S. National Climate Assessment published in November 2018, climate change is diminishing water supplies in the Southwest, posing a major risk for agriculture in a region that produces significant amounts of the country’s food supply.

Arizona, which has endured two decades of long-term drought, is the second leading producer of lettuce in the United States behind California; the majority is farmed in Yuma County.

Rising temperatures also affect residents in disproportionate ways. Last year 182 peopled died from heat-associated deaths in metro Phoenix, a record high.

One of them was Stephanie Pullman, a 72-year-old woman in Sun City West. She fell $52 short on her electricity bill and Arizona Public Service Co. cut off her power on a 107-degree day.

People who are most vulnerable to extreme heat include those who are elderly, homeless, have low incomes or have health issues, said Sandy Bahr, director of the Grand Canyon chapter of Sierra Club.

“If your income is low, it’s harder to pay for cooling,” Bahr said. “And with climate change, hotter days, those costs are going to go up.”

People with lower incomes also tend to live in housing that’s less energy efficient, with means they have to spend more money to cool down their house, she added.

READ MORE: How heat discriminates and what cities are doing about it

Bahr said she's also concerned that there’s been more public emphasis on heat relief stations, but heat deaths are rising.

“I think what’s needed is a real concerted effort,” Bahr said. “That’s the issue with plans. Plans without funding, without implementation, we just don’t get there.”

With the climate crisis already happening, Phoenix needs a greater effort to focus on heat relief, Bahr said.

“I also think a lot of the time, the focus has been on the really big things," she said. Hurricanes. Big fires. Those types of things. It’s really how climate change is affecting our lives every day. A lot of times we don’t notice it, but it is.”

Reach the reporter at Priscilla.Totiya@azcentral.com or 602-444-8092. Follow her on Twitter: @PriscillaTotiya

Environmental coverage on azcentral.com and in The Arizona Republic is supported by a grant from the Nina Mason Pulliam Charitable Trust. For more stories visit environment.azcentral.com or follow OurGrandAZ on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

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