Disability-adjusted life years due to chronic and hidden hunger under food system evolution with climate change and adaptation to 2050

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ABSTRACT

Background

Climate change presents an increasing challenge for food-nutrition security. Nutrition metrics calculated from quantitative food system projections can help focus policy actions.

Objectives

To estimate future chronic and hidden hunger disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)—due to protein-energy undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies, respectively—using food systems projections to evaluate the potential impact of climate change and agricultural sector investment for adaptation.

Methods

We use a novel combination of a chronic and hidden hunger DALY estimation procedure and food system projections from quantitative foresight modeling to assess DALYs under alternative agricultural sector scenarios to midcentury.

Results

Total chronic and hidden hunger DALYs are projected to increase globally out to 2050—by over 30 million compared with 2010—even without climate change. Climate change increases total DALY change between 2010 and 2050 by nearly 10% compared with no climate change. Agricultural sector investments show promise for offsetting these impacts. With investments, DALY incidence due to chronic and hidden hunger is projected to decrease globally in 2050 by 0.24 and 0.56 per 1000 capita, respectively. Total global DALYs will still rise because projected population growth will outpace the rate reduction, especially in Africa south of the Sahara. However, projections also show important regional reductions in total DALYs due to chronic (13.9 million in South Asia, 4.3 million in East Asia and the Pacific) and hidden hunger (7.5 million in East Asia and the Pacific) with investments.

Conclusions

Food system projections to 2050 show a decreasing DALY incidence from both chronic and hidden hunger. Population growth is projected to outpace these improvements and lead to increasing total chronic and hidden hunger DALYs globally, concentrated in Africa south of the Sahara. Climate change increases per-capita chronic and hidden hunger DALY incidence compared with no climate change. Agricultural sector investments show the potential to offset the climate impact on DALYs.

Keywords:

International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model
disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)
quantitative foresight modeling
food and nutrition security
food system
health outcomes
climate change
micronutrient deficiencies
undernutrition

Abbreviations used:

CC
climate change reference scenario
COMP
comprehensive investment scenario
COVID-19
coronavirus disease 2019
DALY
disability-adjusted life year
EAP
East Asia and the Pacific
GBD
Global Burden of Disease
GDP
gross domestic product
IMPACT
International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
ISW
improved soil-water capacity
LAC
Latin America and the Caribbean
MENA
Middle East and North Africa
NARS
national agricultural research systems
NoCC
no climate change reference scenario
R&D
research and development
SAS
South Asia
SSA
Africa south of the Sahara
WUE
water use efficiency.

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Supported by USDA-ARS (NACA #58-8040-8-017) with additional support provided by the Wellcome Trust’s Our Planet Our Health program (205212/Z/16/Z) to TBS, KDW, and SD through the Livestock, Environment and People project, but this work also builds on previous work supported by the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets; the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security; USAID; and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Supplemental Figure 1 and Supplemental Table 1 are available from the “Supplementary data” link in the online posting of the article and from the same link in the online table of contents at https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/.