Many NY Democrats started with enrollment advantages. They melted away.

ALBANY — It's the question political pundits have been arguing about since Nov, 8: How red was the wave across New York?

While the answer depends at least in part on what region of the state you're talking about, voting results show that in many upstate and suburban congressional districts where Democrats had an enrollment advantage, they failed to leverage that starting-line lead. 

Democrats lost in seven of the 10 congressional districts where they held an enrollment advantage by 100,000 or fewer voters, helping Republicans to "flip" seats and win a razor-thin margin in the U.S. House of Representatives. The three Democratic congressmen who did win in these districts, Paul Tonko, Joseph D. Morelle and Pat Ryan, were incumbents. (Ryan's time in Congress, however, began only in September after his special election victory.)

In three of those 10 races, more Republicans turned out to the polls than Democrats did. 

A closer look at the numbers in those races — in Long Island, Staten Island, Hudson Valley, Capital Region, Syracuse and Rochester — suggest that GOP victories were less often the result of Republicans convincing Democratic voters to cross over than they were the result of Democratic campaigns failing to turn out their base, especially among younger voters in college towns.

The data also shows that in all likelihood, a majority of unaffiliated or "independent" voters went for Republicans. Pollsters projected coming into the election that independents would lean Republican, although no exit polling has reflected definitively where they landed. 

The turnout numbers offer insight on what happened in the midterm cycle, and could factor into whether partisan operatives — and their millions in political dollars — will try to influence future races in those battleground districts.

The data is already shaping both parties. U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, the GOP gubernatorial nominee, is campaigning to become the Republican National Committee chairman based in part on his ability to turn out the vote in New York.

Democratic leaders, meanwhile, are hoping turnout in the 2024 presidential cycle will erase the margins Republicans gained in the state. The party is also engaging in a significant amount of finger-pointing about whether or not the state party apparatus — led by longtime chair Jay Jacobs — did enough to get out the vote in what was anticipated to be a challenging year for Democrats.

Hudson Valley and Albany

The Hudson Valley congressional races in the 17th, 18th and 19th districts arguably drew the most attention of any contests in the state. Democrats had the voter enrollment advantage in all of them.

All three were decided by exceedingly narrow margins: an average of 3,800 votes or less than 1.5 percent, based on unofficial results from the state Board of Elections. 

The 17th and 19th districts went to Republicans, Assemblyman Mike Lawler and Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, respectively. The 18th district went to Ryan, who won his special election over Molinaro to serve out the remainder of the term that now-Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado had initially won.

In terms of which voters turned out, those in the Democratic or Working Families parties outnumbered voters in the Republican or Conservative parties in the 17th and 18th districts, but not the 19th. 

Molinaro's victory over Ithaca Democrat Josh Riley in the 19th offers a more complicated look at on-paper advantages.

While Riley appeared to have an enrollment edge of 12,000 voters, that advantage — the slimmest margin for Democrats in the state — is mostly made up of voters under the age of 45. Because young voters tend to vote at lower rates than older voters do, this advantage — especially with college-aged voters — did not offer a major return.

Among voters 45 and older, Republicans have an 7,000-voter enrollment advantage in the 19th district.

By the end, 1,000 more Republican or Conservative voters cast votes than Democrats or Working Family Party voters. Molinaro's win was decided by about 6,000 votes. 

In the 17th district, U.S. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the head of the national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, ran into numerous headwinds as he faced Lawler, a freshman assemblyman.

On paper, Democratic voters held a 74,000 enrollment edge over Republican and Conservatives in the district; in the final turnout, they maintained a 33,000-voter edge. About 72,000 unaffiliated or third-party voters cast a ballot in the race. If Lawler secured a simple majority of independent voters, he would have needed to turn fewer than 15,000 Democrats to win the seat.

The Capital Region district holds similar on-paper voter enrollment and turnout figures to the lower Hudson Valley's 17th. Despite the nearly identical numbers, U.S. Rep. Paul Tonko defeated Republican Liz Joy by a far wider margin of 19,000 votes. Like Lawler, Joy tried to shape the race around crime and inflation. The lower Hudson Valley district, though, featured other elements — including being closer to the New York City media market, where the issues of crime and inflation were being discussed in more dire terms.

In the 18th district, Ryan defeated freshman Assemblyman Colin J. Schmitt by about 3,400 votes.

In that race, Democrats and Working Families Party voters began with a 50,000-voter enrollment advantage. Democrats made up 39 percent of the registered voters maintained that percentage among those who came out to the polls; but Republicans had a six-point bump between enrollment (27 percent) to turnout (33 percent).

The difference in the electorate is partly explained by relatively higher Republican turnout and substantially lower independent turnout. The race also featured slightly lower turnout across the board than in the two other Hudson Valley races.

Long Island and Staten Island

In three of the four Long Island congressional districts, Democrats hold a voter enrollment advantage. The largest of those are in the 3rd and 4th districts, averaging 68,000 more voters than registered Republicans and Conservatives. 

Despite the enrollment advantages, massive turnout from Republicans substantially reduced that edge.

In the 2nd district, along the south shore of Long Island, Democrats have a 17,000-voter enrollment edge, but 24,000 more Republicans than Democrats cast votes. Put another way: While Democrats represented 35 percent of registered voters, they made up only 32 percent of the electorate; Republicans represented 31 percent of registered voters but comprised of 39 percent of the electorate. The race was decided by about 53,000 votes. 

And on Staten Island, U.S. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis defeated Democratic challenger Max Rose despite Democrats holding a voter-enrollment advantage of nearly 70,000. About 8,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted in the race, but Malliotakis won by over 44,000 votes. (About 37,000 unaffiliated or third-party voters cast a ballot in the race.) 

Syracuse and Rochester

In Syracuse, the district may have been in Democratic hands, but under a redrawn political map because of redistricting, Democrats only held a 14,000 voter enrollment advantage there.

By the end, almost 11,000 more Republican or Conservative voters cast votes than Democrats did. Republican Brandon M. Williams won the race over Democratic candidate Francis Conole by about 3,000 votes. 

And in Rochester, Democrats held a 71,000-voter enrollment advantage. Pundits did not initially expect a competitive race. In the end, 22,000 more Democrats voted than Republicans did, and U.S. Rep. Joseph D. Morelle won by 20,000 votes over Republican challenger and former police chief La'Ron D. Singletary.

Assembly districts

There was just one Assembly district — the 113th, which includes Saratoga Springs — where a Democrat won despite Republicans holding a voter enrollment advantage: Incumbent Assemblywoman Carrie Woerner defeated David Catalfamo, a former senior aide to Gov. George E. Pataki, for the second time. 

The outcomes were mixed in Assembly districts where Democrats held a voter enrollment advantage by fewer than 10,000 voters. While they won most districts in which they were incumbents, at least three Democrats failed to overcome high Republican turnout.

Democratic Assemblyman Steve Englebright of Long Island lost by 1,000 votes despite Democrats holding a 6,300-voter enrollment advantage over Republicans. Nearly 1,000 more Republicans voted than Democrats in the race. More than 11,000 independents voted in the race. 

Assemblyman Steven Cymbrowitz of Brooklyn lost by more than 4,000 votes to Republican Michael Novakhov. Democrats hold a 13,000-voter enrollment advantage in the district, and 4,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted in the race. (About 4,600 independents also voted in the race.)

Also in Brooklyn, Assemblyman Peter J. Abbate Jr. lost by roughly 700 votes to Republican Lester Chang. Democrats hold an 18,000-voter enrollment advantage in the district and more than 4,500 Democrats than Republicans ended up voting in the race, along with about 3,000 independents. (Assembly Democrats are challenging Chang's seating in the chamber due to questions about his eligibility to run in the district based on his residence.) 

Assemblywoman Judy Griffin of Long Island is in the middle of recount, and is currently down by less than 200 votes to Republican Brian F. Curran. Democrats hold a 12,000-voter enrollment advantage in the district. They also out-voted Republicans by about 2,600 votes. More than 10,000 independents cast a ballot in that race. 

In races for an open seat, Assembly Democrats lost all but one contest. Nonetheless, the party retained its supermajority in the chamber.

Senate districts

If state Sen. John Manion of Syracuse holds on his current lead after the conclusion of a recount, he will be the only Democrat in the chamber to win in a district in which Republican enrollment outnumbered that of Democrats. 

Sen. James Skoufis pulled off a similarly unusual feat. Although Democrats outnumber Republicans in his Hudson Valley district by about 8,000, roughly 4,600 more Republicans voted in the race than Democrats. Skoufis, a Democrat, won by about 1,500 votes. More than 18,000 independents voted in the race. 

Hudson Valley Democratic incumbent state Sen. Elijah Reichlin-Melnick lost by over 2,000 votes. His district has 41,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans; about 18,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted, along with close to 20,000 independents. 

Reichlin-Melnick has publicly lamented the state Democratic Party leadership and lack of support from the top of the ticket for helping him in his race. 

An earlier version of this story understated the margin of victory for Marc Molinaro in the 19th Congressional District. He won by about 6,000 votes over Josh Riley.