New Vanderbilt COVID-19 transmission model shows uncertainty
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WZTV) — Tuning into social media for only a moment and it's apparent that everybody has an opinion on what's going to happen when the state of Tennessee opens back up next week. Some are excited while others are worried.
When the stores and parking lots start filling back up, some are concerned hospitals will too.
Vanderbilt researchers are doing their best to peer into the future for everyone.
“To successfully suppress a pandemic the transmission rate of 1.0 must be sustained for a long period of time," John Graves, Ph.D. with the Vanderbilt Department of Health Policy, said.
So what will a restart mean for this magic number, the 1.0 transmission rate where one person only infects one other?
FOX 17 News Anchor Stacy Case questioned: “Scientifically, are you saying we will likely have a second wave once we begin opening back up next week that it will be hard to maintain the transmission rate of 1.0 or lower?"
“I don't think anybody knows the answer to that question at this point," Dr. Graves said. "We can look at historical examples of respiratory illnesses, but we don't know the answer to that question unfortunately.”
What they can say with certainty is that one of four things will happen. Doctors are now focusing on the May 1 start date, since the study was made before Gov. Lee's Safer at Home order was lifted.
In scenario one, if the transmission rate jumps to 1.5, 1,000 people will need a hospital bed and Tennesseans would have to be back to a stay at home orders in 46 days: Mid-June.
Scenario two: We jump to 1.2 transmission rate, then we're back home in 74 days, about mid-July.
In model 3 with a 1.1 transmission rate, we'd have our freedom until early September.
Finally, if Tennessee keeps a 1.0 transmission rate, the public can keep their freedom.
“We really want to try to keep that transmission level as low as we can that's with rapid testing and contact tracing I can help us to stay there," Melissa McPheeters, Ph.D. said.