Vanderbilt Poll: Fewer Nashvillians view city as on the 'right track'

Jamie McGee
The Tennessean

Fewer Nashvillians see the city as being on the "right track" than in past years, with residents indicating concerns about growth, education and the use of tax incentives for relocating companies, according to a Vanderbilt University poll. 

The poll, conducted annually by Vanderbilt's Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions, shows that 45% of the more than 900 respondents said the city is headed in the wrong direction, up from 22% in 2015. Those saying it was on the right track declined to 53% from 72% in the same period.

"That's a big shift," John Geer, Vanderbilt political science professor, said. "If you compare ourselves to other cities, things are going really well. If you compare us to some of the perceptions over the past couple of years, there are some clouds forming on the horizon."

Nashville has been struggling with affordable housing, transit and education issues for several years as it encounters ongoing, heavy growth. The region has attracted an average of 83 to 94 people a day in the past two years, according to recent Census population data.

While respondents expressed concerns about the city's direction, 66% said they approved of Mayor David Briley's job performance. More than 30% rate the city's economy as "very good," and 50% describe it as "fairly good."

"Normally when you have a right track/wrong track decline, you would expect the approval of the incumbent would decline, but that's not true," Geer said. "He (Briley) is, in some sense, in good shape, but if there is a candidate that can seize on these concerns and bring them to life, he could be in a tough battle."

Former Mayor Megan Barry had an approval rating of 72% in the same poll in 2017 and 61% in 2018, after she admitted to an affair with an officer who was in charge of her police detail. She resigned in March 2018 and pleaded guilty to felony theft.

The 2019 poll was conducted between March 5 and April 3.

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Tax incentives questioned

Seventy-four percent of respondents would rather see taxpayer money spent on something other than business tax incentives. 

The poll results come as the city dedicates $17.5 million over a seven-year period to Amazon, which is opening a major operations hub in Nashville and which earned more than $10 billion in 2018. Metro Council also approved a $3.6 million incentive package to financial services firm AllianceBernstein, which manages $550 billion in assets for clients globally. 

In 2018, Amazon did not pay a federal income tax and received a rebate, according to the New York Times. 

“It’s interesting, but perhaps not unexpected, that we continue to see a decline in optimism about the city’s future, despite Nashville’s rise in a number of the key economic measures,”Josh Clinton, co-director of the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions and political science director, said. "We are also likely seeing the ‘Amazon effect’ in the responses to the question about the use of taxpayer funds to keep or attract big business to the city.”

Amazon is investing $230 million in its new operations hub and plans to hire 5,000 employees. The local presence is expected to yield $1 billion in new tax revenue over the next 10 years. The incentives from the city are contingent on fulfilling hiring commitments.

"That data point fills into the narrative that people are unhappy with the direction. 'We have enough businesses now, we don't need to give them more incentives to come because we are an attractive place to be,'" Geer said. "The public’s unhappiness with them fits into the general narrative that there are these concerns."

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Education is a top priority

Residents also showed a decline in school board approval, with 37% of poll respondents saying they approved of the Metro Nashville School board's job performance, down from 51% last year. Outgoing superintendent Shawn Joseph saw his job approval rate drop to 33% from 46% last year. His tenure ended in April after the board bought out his contract. 

More than 80% cited education as their top priority for the city, similar to previous years. Fifty-one percent said transportation was the most important issue.

Residents also expressed a willingness to support higher teacher pay with additional taxes. Sixty-seven percent said they would support an increase in property taxes if it went to teacher pay increases. 

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Reach Jamie McGee at 615-259-8071 and on Twitter @JamieMcGee_.

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