Number of COVID-19 patients in Tennessee hospitals is highest ever, Vanderbilt study says

A new report from Vanderbilt University warns that the number of COVID-19 patients in Tennessee's hospitals has hit its highest level ever, and that higher numbers in Memphis and Chattanooga are making a big contribution to that dangerous increase.

Public health officials continue to warn people to practice social distancing, wash hands and wear face coverings in public.

"Across the state, around 400 patients were concurrently hospitalized between June 7-13 — a rise of nearly 30% from a week earlier," says the new report, released Tuesday.

The report says the situation hasn't yet developed into an emergency, but should be monitored closely. "As of this week, hospitalizations across Tennessee are at their highest point in the pandemic—but we stress that the hospitalization situation has not yet put acute stress on the health care system."

More information:Read the full Vanderbilt report here.

A graph in the report says hospitalizations in Middle Tennessee have remained steady at about 150, that hospitalizations in southeast Tennessee have risen to about 50, that hospitalizations in the Memphis area have risen to more than 150, and that the rest of Tennessee has around 50 cases related to COVID-19. 

Hospitalizations hit new peak in Memphis

The increase in Memphis has been especially rapid.

On May 19, the day after Phase 2 reopening began, there were 134 COVID-19 patients in Memphis-area hospitals, according to Memphis and Shelby County COVID-19 joint task force data. 

On June 9, about one week ago, there were 153 COVID-19 patients in Shelby County hospitals. 

As of Sunday, the number of hospitalized patients in Shelby County had risen to 200 — that's the highest number so far.

Officials watch hospitalizations closely because of the concern that a wave of COVID-19 patients could overwhelm hospitals, making it impossible for health care workers to provide adequate care and leading to preventable deaths.

That deadly scenario has already played out in various places around the globe, including certain spots in Italy as well as in New York City. 

Researchers are also watching the virus replication rate. A rate of one means that each COVID-19 patient passes the virus to one other person, meaning the virus is stable. A rate of less than one means that the virus is going away. A rate of greater than one means the virus is growing.

The researchers put Tennessee's current rate at 1.13.

If current trends continue, the state could see 1,000 hospitalized COVID-19 patients by late July or early August, the researchers concluded. If the virus transmission rate increases to 1.25, the state would see 1,000 hospitalized patients by mid-July.

Researchers: Tennesseans must be 'vigilant'

The report was written by researchers at Vanderbilt University Medical Center and Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, including John Graves, Melissa McPheeters, Melinda Buntin and Mike Curb.

“As we have since the epidemic began, we are continuing to heavily stress that Tennesseans need to keep doing what they did early on, and that is to be very vigilant about social distancing, be consistent with hand hygiene and do your part to slow the spread,” McPheeters said in a statement.

“It will be imperative to maintain a strong public health response in the form of widespread testing, effective contact tracing and recommendations for isolation of cases as we move forward.”

The report comes about six weeks after the April 27 reopening of many businesses in Tennessee rural counties and the slower reopening of businesses in metro area. An elevated case count has already prompted Memphis-area authorities to put a pause on Phase 3 reopening, which had been scheduled for this week and would have allowed larger gatherings and greater building occupancy.

Officials in Memphis are seeing increases in overall cases and hospitalizations, and the calculation of the viral transmission rate appears to be creeping up, too.

"These are signs to us that there is significant transmission within the community and that moving forward would put more people at risk," said Alisa Haushalter, director of the Shelby County Health Department.

Investigative reporter Daniel Connolly welcomes tips and comments from the public. Reach him at 529-5296, daniel.connolly@commercialappeal.com, or on Twitter at @danielconnolly.