Opinion

Putin, sensing Biden’s weakness, is heading toward a nuclear showdown

Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be doing all he can to start a nuclear showdown with the NATO alliance over his genocidal war in Ukraine. But if he gets his wish, he could inadvertently set off a chain reaction of events we will be unable to control, an atomic Pandora’s box no one can close once it is unleashed.

His latest actions not only should create doubt that he is indeed rational — he might even be suicidal.

In striking a staging ground for foreign arms shipments a mere 15 miles from the Polish-Ukraine border, Putin is signaling that weapons like Javelin and NLAW anti-tank busters, Stinger missiles and other arms are creating chaos for the Russian army. And he wants that chaos to stop or he will create havoc himself, even if it means possible Armageddon. 

Biden addresses the public on March 11. AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

But perhaps that’s what he wants us to believe? Countless world leaders have played crazy in times of crisis, with history showing it can indeed pay off. Richard Nixon played the madman with the Soviet Union during tough times in the Middle East, and Donald Trump threatened to destroy North Korea in a speech to the United Nations just a few years back, but neither dared match words with deeds. Putin seems intent on applying his own maximum-pressure strategy on the West, getting dangerously close to striking NATO territory — and starting World War III. 

Or does Putin just think he can get away with it, that the West will simply back down? Sadly, his logic might not be as warped as we would believe. 

We can’t exactly draw much confidence from President Joe Biden’s performance thus far. He can barely get through a press conference without stumbling through his talking points, often seeming dazed and confused, with many wondering if his cognitive abilities are in rapid decline.

An explosion at an apartment building hit by Russian shelling. AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka

Compare him at the 2012 vice-presidential debate against Paul Ryan with the man he is today. Clearly, Biden is lost in his own thoughts and should not be sitting behind the wheel of a car, let alone behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office. 

And that could explain Moscow’s actions. Putin may think he can steamroll right over the president. If Biden can barely speak to the American people in a coherent manner, how can he go toe to toe with a nuclear superpower like Russia and prevail? 

Indeed, Putin may believe he can get Biden to back off, to try to force Ukraine to take a negotiated settlement that would turn Kyiv into a rump state that can never join NATO or the European Union, with huge chunks of what was Ukrainian territory locked behind what will become a new iron curtain of authoritarianism.

Activists kneel during a moment of silence during a protest against the Russia-Ukraine war near the White House. AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Biden wouldn’t send Polish MiG-29s to Ukraine and won’t back a no-fly zone. Maybe Putin thinks he can get Biden to give a little more ground, to take away the weapons Ukraine needs to survive, if he escalates just enough.

Here is where things get ugly. Putin knows his armored forces will within weeks be unable to gain much ground thanks to Ukraine turning into a giant mud pit. He needs to press forward as hard and as fast as he can now to advance as much as possible before spring comes.

To do that, he must slow or stop the foreign arms coming into Ukraine. And that means Putin will likely attack any arms convoys, ammo dumps, supply centers and shipping facilities that will support such efforts. 

Putin makes a speech in honor of International Women’s Day on March 8. AP

This all leads to an inescapable conclusion: Things are destined to get worse. Facts on the ground and Putin’s calculations about American leadership may push him to cross the very edges of what many consider red lines, as Russia is close to running out of room to push. We are now at a point where a NATO-Russia clash is looking more like annihilation than negotiation. And that should terrify us all. 

Harry J. Kazianis is the senior director at the Center for the National Interest. Twitter: @Grecianformula