The Ukrainian military and Russian-backed separatist forces reported increased shelling for a second day in the disputed eastern region of the former Soviet republic – as one key US diplomat suggested as many as 190,000 Russian forces are poised to invade.
Friday’s estimate by the US envoy to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) comes after President Biden said Tuesday that Russia had “more than 150,000 troops encircling Ukraine and [in] Belarus along Ukraine’s border.”
In a statement to an OSCE meeting in Vienna, Ambassador Michael Carpenter said the current US assessment is that Moscow has massed between 169,000 and 190,000 military personnel “in and near” Ukraine, up from approximately 100,000 as of Jan. 30.
“This estimate includes military troops along the border, in Belarus, and in occupied Crimea; Russian National Guard and other internal security units deployed to these areas; and Russian-led forces in eastern Ukraine,” said Carpenter, who described it as “the most significant military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War.”
“While Russia has sought to downplay or deceive the world about their ground and air preparations, the Russian military has publicized its large-scale naval exercises in the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and the Arctic,” Carpenter added. “Russia has publicly said the Black Sea exercise alone involves more than 30 ships, and we assess that amphibious landing ships from the Northern and Baltic Fleets were sent to the Black Sea to augment forces there.”
Meanwhile, a diplomatic source told Reuters that nearly 600 explosions had been recorded in eastern Ukraine Friday morning and described the shelling as the most intense since a 2015 cease-fire halted major combat operations.
The source added that at least four rounds had been fired from tanks, while other weapons used included 152 mm and 122 mm artillery and large mortars.
“They’re shooting – everyone and everything,” the diplomat said. “There’s been nothing like this since 2014-15.”
On Thursday, a shell hit a kindergarten building in the village of Stanytsia Luhanska, one of approximately 500 explosions recorded in the region that day.
Both Ukrainian officials and the separatists blamed each other for the violence, with Kiev calling it a “provocation” and Russian state media accusing Ukraine of violating the cease-fire, known as the Minsk Agreement.
No deaths have been confirmed so far, but at least two people were treated for shock following the Stanytsia Luhanska attack.
Fears of a full-on Russian invasion of Ukraine have continued to grow in the West, with President Biden telling reporters Thursday that he believed Russia would attack in a matter of days and describing the threat as “very high.” Biden emphasized that the administration believes Russia may use a false flag operation as pretext to invade.
On Friday, Russian separatist leader Denis Pushilin ordered a mass evacuation of all women, children and elderly civilians in Eastern Ukraine to Russia, claiming Ukraine was planning to invade the separatist-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
“In recent months, we have been observing a daily increase in the number of military personnel and lethal weapons by Ukraine, including Smerch and Uragan multiple launch rocket systems, NLAW rocket launchers, as well as Javelins and Stingers along the entire line of contact,” Pushilin said in a video statement.
“Today their guns are aimed at civilians, at us and our children. The armed forces of the enemy are in combat formations and are ready for the forceful capture of Donbass.”
Ukraine immediately denied the accusation.
“We categorically refute Russian disinformation reports on Ukraine’s alleged offensive operations or acts of sabotage in chemical production facilities,” Foreign minister Dymtro Kuleba tweeted. “Ukraine does not conduct or plan any such actions in the Donbas. We are fully committed to diplomatic conflict resolution only.”
It is unclear if any mass evacuation in the Donetsk region has actually begun.
Hours later, Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence agency warned residents in Donetsk to stay inside their homes and avoid public transportation, claiming Russian special services had “mined a number of social infrastructure facilities” in the city to “further undermine them.”
“These measures are aimed at destabilizing the situation in the temporarily occupied territories of our state and create grounds for accusing Ukraine of terrorist attacks,” the Defence Intelligence said in a series of tweets.
“The Public Relations Service of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine urges Donetsk residents not to leave their homes and not to use public transport.”
Russia has repeatedly insisted that it has no plans to invade Ukraine and tried to claim that it is pulling back forces from the border area. On Friday, Moscow alleged that a tank unit and two mechanized infantry units were traveling back to their bases in southern and central Russia.
Amid the standoff, the Kremlin repeated its demand Thursday that the US and NATO rule out Ukraine ever joining the Atlantic alliance and roll back their military presence in Central and Eastern Europe.
The demands were included in Russia’s long-awaited response to proposals from the US and NATO on Ukraine and Russia’s security – which rejected Moscow’s original demands last month.
For weeks, Ukraine has attempted to downplay the threat of an invasion, pushing a message of calm.
On Friday, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told parliament that the probability of a “large-scale escalation” is “low,” adding that the Kiev government’s intelligence “sees every move that could post a potential threat to Ukraine,” according to Reuters.
