Over a decade ago, the Great Recession dealt a seismic blow to colleges and universities in the U.S. State funding for higher education was drastically cut, and it never fully recovered. Institutions increased reliance on tuition revenue, and converging research shows they also continued to devise strategies to leverage their financial aid offerings and attract wealthier students. Since then, the average cost of college has steadily increased, student loan debt has skyrocketed, and recent college graduates have been met with stagnant wages upon entering the job market.
The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic could be much worse.
Whether distance learning or canceled graduation ceremonies, the short-term changes forced upon students and their schools amid the pandemic have taken sizable tolls. But the long-term effects on colleges and universities, exacerbated by business models that some have called fundamentally “broken” and unsustainable, could prove even more drastic than the immediate implications. Just as the Great Recession triggered an enrollment surge of older adults and “nontraditional” students at two-year community colleges and for-profit online universities — some of which, in years since, have risen to national prominence in the online learning space — new trends and structural inequities in the aftermath of the coronavirus will also transform the higher education landscape. Some fear that the short-term socioeconomic, geographic, and racial disparities exposed by the pandemic will only continue to worsen.
Teen Vogue spoke with four higher education experts — including a former college president, policy experts, and a union leader — to get their insights into how this pandemic will shape higher education in the years to come. Their responses have been edited for length and clarity.
Teen Vogue: What do you predict will be some of the most consequential, long-term implications of this pandemic on higher education?
Robert Kelchen, associate professor of higher education at Seton Hall University: I think one of the biggest long-term implications will be whether colleges can survive in their current form, because typically, during a recession, enrollment in college increases significantly. But during this crisis, it’s not entirely clear whether that will happen, because if you can’t leave your house, you may take a class or two online, but you may not go full time. So this will stress the budget model of colleges in ways that it’s never been stressed before.
Lynn Pasquerella, president of the Association of American Colleges and Universities, and former president of Mount Holoyke College: We have for a hundred years relied on the same model of higher education, and in the past few decades have implemented what is an unsustainable financial model, where we continue to raise tuition and have burgeoning loan burdens, which result in growing economic and therefore racial segregation in higher education. So I think this crisis will force us to look at new ways to deliver a curriculum at a time when we’re recognizing an education will be more important than ever.
Megan Coval, vice president of policy and federal relations at the National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators: Due to the impact the pandemic is having on the economy, we are expecting that many more students may qualify for greater amounts of financial aid. In the short term, that may mean more appeals to financial aid offices to have aid offers adjusted through the use of professional judgment. In the long term, it may mean more students become eligible to receive the federal Pell Grant. Although the Pell Grant program currently has a reserve fund – specifically intended to ensure the viability of the program through times of economic downturn – if Congress does not make further investments in the program, it may face a shortfall in the years to come.
Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers (AFT): We’ve seen so much of higher ed teaching based upon graduate students and adjuncts, many of whom were working paycheck to paycheck. So just like the gig economy, the higher ed infrastructure is based upon a lot of precarious labor, and that’s going to become more and more precarious.… Half of the AFT’s 240,000 higher education members are contingent workers; 35,000 are graduate employees. We are the largest union of contingent workers. We just put out a report on quality of life for adjunct faculty, and 45% of adjunct faculty rely on public assistance now; 40% have trouble covering basic household expenses. Many are struggling with food insecurity, limited health coverage, housing issues – all of which has been exacerbated by COVID-19.
TV: Which types of institutions do you predict will be hit hardest economically?
Coval: Because of the way the funding formula to distribute CARES Act aid to institutions was structured…institutions that serve a larger portion of part-time students, such as community colleges, may get less funding. That can be detrimental because those students likely have other commitments, such as work, family, or other obligations, and could benefit from that aid. We do know that states are already turning to cuts [in] public higher education to balance their budgets. During the last recession, schools were able to get through by increasing tuition. But with the unique impact of this pandemic in forcing instruction online, it’s not clear that students and families would be willing or able to pay higher tuition rates.
Kelchen: The most elite colleges will be fine no matter what. I think community colleges will end up doing fairly well, and colleges where a larger percentage of students commute will end up doing fairly well.… I think that colleges that will struggle the most are smaller, residential colleges in rural areas, because those colleges are often expensive, and students and families aren’t clear whether they’ll be able to actually go there in person. Even if the college is open, students may not want to travel four, five, or six hours to get there. Another set of winners will be colleges that already had large online programs. The ones you see advertising on TV right now will probably end up being okay.
TV: Recent guidelines from the U.S. Department of Education effectively bar colleges from providing any emergency funding to Dreamers and undocumented students, from the over $6 billion in federal relief dollars that were allocated to higher education in the CARES Act. How important are international students to higher ed?
Pasquerella: The fact that we are excluding international students and challenging our commitment to diversity by not providing aid serves to undermine the historic mission of higher education, which is to educate for democracy. So colleges and universities, in response, are providing their own financial aid. This is one of the challenges that they’ll be facing: 50% of the aid they receive from the government has to go directly to student financial aid. They have some flexibility with the other 50% of the money, but it might all need to go to student financial aid in order to retain the students who are part of their community. That means that operations will be put at risk, that professional development will be jeopardized at a time when it will be more critical than ever, as we’re shifting to remote learning.
Coval: It’s important to note that this distinction — to only allow CARES Act funds to go to Title IV eligible students — won’t just impact undocumented, DACA, and international students. Section 484 in Title IV of the Higher Education Act of 1965 has far more requirements than just those having to do with citizenship or legal residency. A low-income student who, for example, had to suddenly move off campus and incurred expenses as a result of the pandemic but had a minor drug conviction would not be eligible for the aid. A student who needed to purchase a laptop for his now-online courses but didn’t register for Selective Service would not be eligible. A student who incurred coronavirus-related expenses but has a previous defaulted student loan that hasn’t been rehabilitated would also not be eligible. Although the intent was for these funds to go to students who experienced disruptions, the department has deemed them all ineligible.
TV: Are there any lessons that can be learned from the effects of the 2008 financial crisis on the higher ed ecosystem?
Pasquerella (who also served as president of Mount Holyoke, a small, women's liberal arts college in Massachusetts, from 2010 to 2016): There are many lessons to be learned, and Mount Holyoke was in a strong position, despite the fact that there was a serious recession. We had an endowment at the time that was [substantial], so we were in a good position at that time. Nevertheless, we needed to engage in strategic decision-making that was going to strengthen the financial viability of the college, and what we did was invest in the students themselves. We provided paid internships for each student during her time at the college.… We also froze tuition, room and board for two years in a row, and invested in graduate and professional programs. But what institutions decide to do will depend on their individual circumstances. What we’ve learned is that colleges and university leaders need to engage in scenario-planning that takes into account a variety of futures.
Kelchen: We can look at how colleges responded to budget cuts, especially public colleges, but the difference with the Great Recession is that enrollment spiked during that time — that’s not quite sure here. But I would also look at: Have colleges fully recovered from the Great Recession yet?
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