Herd immunity from COVID-19 a lofty goal, even locally in Central New York

For many, the concept of herd immunity has been the ticket out of the pandemic. Epidemiologists say the goal is technically achievable but will be very difficult.

Based on emerging data the numbers required for herd immunity - meaning enough members of a population are immune via vaccination that outbreaks can't happen - has changed. 80 percent is about what needs to be achieved, according to most experts.

In Onondaga County, just over half of the adult population has at least one dose of the vaccine. More are vaccinated every day, but County Executive Ryan McMahon believes we will hit a wall when it comes to vaccine demand as early as next week, making the final push for statistical herd immunity difficult.

According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, about 13 percent of American's say that will "definitely not" get a vaccine. This number is down from fifteen percent about a month ago - still, an additional 7 percent say they will only get vaccinated if required, flat from a month ago. It makes getting higher than the 80 percent benchmark a very lofty goal. Falling short could mean clusters of the virus perpetually forming for years down the line.

"We really need to continue to ramp up the efforts to get people vaccinated and understand that's the only way out of pandemic for us," said Dr. Jana Shaw, an infectious disease specialist at Upstate Medical Hospital, "the number of those unvaccinated has to be really small for covid we think it's about 2 out of 10 can be safely unvaccinated to be prevented from infection."

Vaccination numbers are strong, and it is possible for herd immunity to be achieved at a more local level even if we fall short nationally. However, travel and other unpredictable factors mean there is no guarantee that would hold.

"If locally we reach high herd immunity it will allow us to loosen up some of the restrictions that have been imposed to keep people safe," said Dr. Shaw.

Both Pfizer and Moderna have announced the need for boosters down the line, with leading epidemiologists predicting that we will never fully eradicate COVID-19. The more people vaccinated, the stronger the protection for the entire population.

"Scientists across the country are looking at this more as a containment issue as opposed to a full herd immunity which may we may not be able to get to at this point. but if we control the spread of the disease and reduce the number of cases in anyone, that will go a long way in helping us to get through this," said Dr. Philip Falcone, Chief Medical Officer at St. Joseph's Health Hospital.

Overcoming vaccine hesitancy is now the key.

"If you have fuel for the fire it's going to burn longer and harder. The less fuel the better we are, the more times we can limit the transmission and the limitations on people getting sick, the better we're going to be," said Dr. Falcone.