A seasonal forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there is a 60% likelihood that an above-average hurricane season is on the horizon, an alarming prospect as the storms and responses to them could be complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
But hurricanes aren’t the only weather events that could be especially difficult to handle amid a pandemic. Tornado season is upon us, wildfire season has started, and floods in Michigan and Illinois are bringing to mind last year’s expansive flooding in the South and midwest. All of these weather events have become stronger or more common in recent history, with research indicating that increasingly extreme weather events like these could be worsened by conditions created by climate change.
Here’s what we know so far about what’s predicted to happen during 2020 and how experts are suggesting the public and emergency officials respond with the current COVID-19 pandemic in mind.
What’s happened so far?
Ahead of the official start of hurricane season, tropical storm Arthur formed and became the first-named storm of the 2020 season. (This was the sixth year in a row that a storm was named prior to June 1, according to NPR.) On May 18, NBC News reported Arthur remained offshore and only brought heavy rain to North Carolina.
On May 27, the second-named storm of the year, tropical storm Bertha, made landfall less than two hours after it was named, according to CNN. CNN reported that this is only the fifth time since 1900 that there have been two named storms before June 1.
In Michigan, dams failed and caused “catastrophic” flooding after several inches of rainfall last week, NPR reports. At the time, the National Weather Service said “extremely dangerous flooding is ongoing along the Tittabawassee River in Midland County due to catastrophic failures at the Edenville and Sanford dams,” a reminder that not every natural disaster is completely natural. In response, Governor Gretchen Whitmer has called the flooding levels “historic,” declared a State of Emergency for Midland County, and ordered evacuations that affected about 11,000 people.
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The Midland County Public Health director Fred Yanoski told the Detroit Free Press evacuation efforts have been exacerbated by the current COVID-19 pandemic.
“It’s absolutely a challenge,” he said. “Our message with [the] normal COVID response is to discourage public gatherings and whatnot. And in this particular situation, it is unavoidable as we’ve had to move several thousand people into a handful of sheltering facilities. It is a challenge.”
Other extreme ecological events have also popped up in 2020. California has already reported 19 named fires this year, with an estimated 2,682 acres burned. In Louisiana, a deadly tornado touched down just this week, killing one person. According to NOAA, tornadoes have already killed 74 people this year, which has included the deadliest April for tornadoes in years.
And that’s all just within the United States. There were also this year’s historic fires in Australia, and Cyclone Amphan (a hurricane-like storm) killed more than 80 and left thousands more homeless in Bangladesh and East India this week.
What are experts predicting?
Colorado State and Weather Company experts have warned that there could be 16 to 18 named storms in the Atlantic ocean in 2020, with eight or nine of them potentially turning into hurricanes this year. In a forecast released May 21, NOAA had similar findings, predicting 13 to 19 named storms, with six to 10 hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, has been exceptionally active the last several years, and 2020 might be similar.
“I’m sure nobody wants to hear this with everything else going on, but it’s looking like it will be a relatively active [hurricane] season,” Phil Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University, told NBC News earlier this month.
Some are trying to preemptively prepare for the ways the pandemic might affect disaster response. KDRV, an ABC affiliate in Oregon, reported at the start of May that the COVID-19 pandemic has already impacted preparation for wildfire season. According to the local station, the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) predicted large wildfires could occur in southwest Oregon and northern California by June, in other parts of the Pacific northwest by July, and across the broader west into August. The weather conditions that create these events are still difficult to protect against.
According to the Washington Post, 2020 has been the deadliest year for tornadoes since 2011, but much of May has been “suspiciously quiet.”
While the situation in Michigan is dire, the country is almost through the spring flood season identified by NOAA, which noted that 2020 wasn’t expected to be as “severe or prolonged” as the seemingly merciless 2019 season.
How will the coronavirus complicate all this?
As the Atlantic hurricane season looms near, Vox suggested last month that planning from emergency managers and the public should already be underway, noting that the pandemic has already stressed systems of disaster management, health, and other essential services a hurricane could further burden. Both the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Prevention have released guidelines for preparing for hurricane season with the current pandemic in mind. The advice is focused on how the coronavirus could complicate evacuation and shelters, which are crucial parts of storm response.
“While many preparedness tools available to you are the same, certain actions may look different while COVID-19 remains a concern,” FEMA’s website says in regard to the 2020 season. Updated guidelines include staying informed about how the coronavirus might impact evacuation shelters, including possible closures.
The CDC suggests adding items such as hand sanitizer and cloth face coverings (two for each person) to “go kits” for use during an evacuation. The organization also recommends following safety guidelines, including social-distancing recommendations, when checking on neighbors and friends or evacuating to public-disaster shelters.
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