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United States

China

Japan

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Military & Security

Politics

What is the future of Japan and the U.S.'s military relationship?

Essential Geopolitics: What Continued U.S.-Japan Cooperation Means for China

Assessments

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Argentina

Bolivia

Peru

Palestinian Territories

France

Spain

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his wife, Begona Gomez, arrive Oct. 5, 2023, at the Carlos V Palace at the Alhambra in Granada, Spain. Sanchez is expected to make an announcement about his political future on April 29 following his surprise decision April 25 to suspend public appearances after a court in Madrid announced an investigation into his wife for alleged influence-peddling and corruption.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South American Foreign Ministers Visit China, the Spanish Premier Announces His Political Future

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Israel

Morocco

Moroccan Air Force mechanics examine an F-16 fighter jet at an airbase in Ben Guerir, about 58 kilometers north of Marrakesh, Morocco, on June 14, 2021. 

Pressure from its pro-Palestinian population will not deter Morocco from using Israeli technology to expand its domestic weapons capabilities, as Rabat seeks to catch up to Algeria’s military power and position itself as an arms exporter.

Despite the Gaza War, Morocco-Israel Defense Ties Look Set to Deepen

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 25, 2024

Russia

Moldova

People hold Moldovan national flags as they gather outside the presidential palace in Chisinau on Dec. 14, 2023, to celebrate the European Council's decision to open accession talks with Moldova.

In the lead-up to the October presidential election and referendum on Moldova's EU integration, Moscow and its Moldovan political allies will step up their efforts to destabilize the country's pro-European government.

In Moldova, Two Key Votes Portend More Pro-Russian Political Agitation

Rwanda

Congolese soldiers sit in a military vehicle in Kamanyola, a village in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The intensifying fight against M23 rebels in eastern Congo risks triggering border clashes with Rwanda that could threaten Congolese President Tshisekedi's government and risk disrupting Congo's cobalt exports.

Where Is the Conflict in Eastern Congo Headed?

An aerial view shows residential buildings under construction by Chinese real estate developer Vanke in Hangzhou, in eastern China's Zhejiang province, on March 15, 2024. 

Economics

Without productivity-enhancing economic reform, China's economic growth will likely continue to slow amid insufficient demand and continued over-investment.

Gauging the Risk of a Systemic Financial Crisis in China

Europe

June 9 European Parliament elections will likely see right-wing and far-right parties make significant gains in several EU countries at the expense of center-left and green parties.

2024 Elections: The European Union

Ecuador

Iran

A banner depicts IRGC missile models aimed at Israel on April 16 in the Iranian capital of Tehran. The ongoing confrontation may be entering a de-escalation phase after the April 19 Israeli counterstrike to Iran's April 13 salvo against Israel.

The Weekly Rundown: Israel-Iran Conflict, Ecuador's Constitutional Referendum

Social Issues

What are the biggest issues with the U.S. healthcare system, and how can we address them?

RANE Insights: Addressing Problems in the U.S. Healthcare System

Tit-for-tat military exchanges between Iran and its proxies against Israel will likely continue, with a constant risk of escalation.

Israel Launches Measured Attack on Iran, but Escalation Risks Remain

Latest

Panama

Panama presidential candidate Jose Raul Mulino of the conservative Realizing Goals party gestures during a campaign rally in Panama City on April 28, 2024. 

The Central American country's next president will take office at a time of deepening economic challenges and political tensions, creating business uncertainty and unrest risks in the years ahead.


Previewing Panama's Presidential Election

Pakistan

A welcoming billboard displaying an image of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (left) and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is seen along a street in Karachi, Pakistan, on April 22, 2024. 

Energy

Pakistan and Iran's embattled pipeline project, which has faced delays amid funding issues and U.S. sanction concerns, could impede recent efforts to boost bilateral cooperation.

For Pakistan and Iran, a Delayed Pipeline Could Undermine Improved Relations

Iran will likely respond to Israel's attack, but the scope and size of Iran's response will depend on the scope of Israel's military actions, which is unclear at this time.

Israel Responds to the Iranian Attack

Singapore

A photo of Singapore's Parliament building against a cityscape.

Singapore's Incoming Prime Minister Brings a Fresh Face to an Old Regime

France's Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (C) speaks during the opening session of "Questions to the Prime Minister" at the French National Assembly in Paris, on April 3, 2024.

To right the sinking ship of France's public finances, Paris must implement unpopular economic measures that could lead to government collapse.

France's Budget Troubles Bode Ill for Macron Ahead of EU Elections

Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip. 

Israel is shifting to smaller, more targeted operations, but its apparent lack of a long-term governance plan for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence there without fully appeasing Israel's international allies.

The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy

People gather outside the provincial legislature of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly in Peshawar on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The delay may mar the upper house's credibility and cause political instability, but it is unlikely to significantly impede policymaking.


The Impact of Pakistan's Delayed Senate Formation

Columns

On Geopolitics

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Australia

Fiji

Indonesia

New Zealand

North Korea

Philippines

South Korea

Vietnam

United Kingdom

India

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

Environment, Science & Technology

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

U.S.-China Relations

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukraine

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

El Salvador

El Salvador's Legislative Assembly approved adding a subsection to the constitution's Article 248 that would allow the assembly to approve and ratify constitutional reforms, making it easier to change the constitution, AP reported on April 29.

El Salvador: Legislative Assembly Approves Article Allowing for Faster Constitutional Reforms

The Texas Department of Public Safety on April 27 began conducting increased inspections of cargo vehicles entering the state from Mexico at the Ysleta-Zaragoza International Bridge between Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, and El Paso, United States, Mexico News Daily reported on April 29.

Mexico, U.S.: Texas Imposes Increased Cargo Inspections

Cyber

Science & Technology

Eight major regional U.S. newspapers owned by Alden Global Capital filed lawsuits against OpenAI and Microsoft for copyright infringement, Axios reported on April 30. 

U.S.: Major Regional Newspapers Sue OpenAI, Microsoft for Copyright Infringement

Malaysia

In Malaysia, 108 KFC locations have "temporarily closed" amid a popular boycott of the fast food chain, along with smaller-scale closings of Pizza Hut, Starbucks and McDonald's locations, and there is currently no timeline for reopening, CNA reported on April 30. 

Malaysia: Anti-Israel Boycotts Affecting Western Brands

The Philippine coast guard undertook a patrol mission around the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, and four Chinese coast guard vessels and six maritime militia vessels responded by deploying water cannons, damaging two Philippine vessels, BenarNews reported on April 30.

Philippines, China: Confrontation at Scarborough Shoal Results in Water Cannon Attack

Microsoft announced that it will invest $1.7 billion in cloud and artificial intelligence infrastructure in Indonesia over the next four years, The Wall Street Journal reported on April 30. 

Indonesia: Microsoft To Invest $1.7B in AI, Cloud Computing

During the Chinese Politburo's monthly meeting, the body announced that China will hold its quinquennial Third Plenum on economic reforms in July, the South China Morning Post reported on April 30.

China: Politburo Lays Out Economic Priorities, Date for Key Reform Meeting

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia's economy and planning minister said the country is "focusing on accelerating diversification," with non-oil growth expected between 4% and 5% in 2024, and intends to finish all planned Vision 2030 projects at their intended scale, Bloomberg reported on April 29.

Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Claims Steady Momentum on Vision 2030, Despite Some Revisions 

The International Monetary Fund's executive board approved the second review of Pakistan's approximately $3 billion stand-by arrangement, paving the way for the disbursement of the final tranche of approximately $1.1 billion, Reuters reported on April 29. 

Pakistan: IMF Executive Board Approves Second and Final Review of Bailout, Disbursing $1.1B

Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia. 

Russia's current economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine this year or next, though a drop in oil revenues may eventually combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term.

Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

On Security

Chile

Costa Rica

Guatemala

Policemen guard the car of Mayor Luis Chonillo after an attack on the official May 15, 2023, in Duran, Ecuador. Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Forecasting Latin America's Next Crime Hotspot After Ecuador

Chad

Sudan

United Arab Emirates

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield warned of an impending "large-scale massacre" in El Fasher, the capital of Sudan's North Darfur region, Voice of America reported on April 29. 

Sudan: U.S. Warns of 'Large-Scale Massacre' Ahead of Expected RSF Offensive on El Fasher

Turkey

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

El Salvador: Legislative Assembly Approves Article Allowing for Faster Constitutional Reforms

Mexico, U.S.: Texas Imposes Increased Cargo Inspections

U.S.: Major Regional Newspapers Sue OpenAI, Microsoft for Copyright Infringement

Malaysia: Anti-Israel Boycotts Affecting Western Brands

Philippines, China: Confrontation at Scarborough Shoal Results in Water Cannon Attack

Indonesia: Microsoft To Invest $1.7B in AI, Cloud Computing

China: Politburo Lays Out Economic Priorities, Date for Key Reform Meeting

Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Claims Steady Momentum on Vision 2030, Despite Some Revisions

Pakistan: IMF Executive Board Approves Second and Final Review of Bailout, Disbursing $1.1B

Sudan: U.S. Warns of 'Large-Scale Massacre' Ahead of Expected RSF Offensive on El Fasher

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