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Impact of Climate on Hydrological Extremes
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Impact of Climate on Hydrological Extremes

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Hydrology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 March 2018) | Viewed by 65373

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Salvatore Manfreda

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Guest Editor
Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Naples "Federico II", Napoli, Italy
Interests: stochastic processes; hydrological modelling; model calibration; flood risk; geomorphology; ecohydrology; UAS monitoring
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Prof. Dr. Vito Iacobellis

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Guest Editor
Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Ambientale, del Territorio, Edile e di Chimica (DICATECh) of Politecnico di Bari, Politecnico di Bari, Bari, Italy
Interests: flood frequency analysis; space-time rainfall; distributed hydrologic modeling; hydraulic risk assessment; probabilistic derived distributions; water balance assessment; climate change
Prof. Dr. Andrea Gioia

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Civil, Environmental, Land, Building Engineering and Chemistry (DICATECh), Polytechnic University of Bari (DICATECh), 70125 Bari, Italy
Interests: flood frequency analysis; hydraulic risk assessment; flood prone areas evaluation using geomorphologic descriptors; probabilistic derived distributions; water balance evaluation; climate change; distributed hydrologic modeling; hydrological models for flood prediction
Prof. Dr. Mauro Fiorentino

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
DICEM – University of Basilicata, Via Nazario Sauro 85, 85100 Potenza, Italy
Interests: hydrology; geomorphology; complex systems
Prof. Krzysztof Kochanek

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Guest Editor
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
Interests: statistical modeling of hydrological issues; hydrological extreme phenomena; risk and uncertainty analysis; flood frequency analysis; water resources; ecological aspects of hydrology; groundwater modeling
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

High and low flows and associated floods and droughts are extreme hydrological phenomena caused by meteorological anomalies and modified by various catchment processes and human activities. They exert an increasing amount of damage to human, economic, and natural environmental systems in the world. In this context, global climate change along with local fluctuations may eventually trigger a disproportionate response in hydrological extremes.

This Special Issue will focus upon observed extreme events in a recent past, how these extremes are linked to changing global/regional climate, and the manner in which they may shift in the coming years. Papers dealing with physical mechanisms underlying past, present and future climatic extremes, both from the observational and the modelling points of view would be particularly welcome.

The main objectives are:

- to foster the understanding of the governing processes of hydrological extremes;
- to present methods and practical applications for i) flood and drought monitoring, ii) estimating flood and drought frequency, spatial patterns and short-term and long-term variability, and iii) predicting hydrological extremes in near real-time and in the future; 
- to address the potential impacts of global change, including climate and land use changes on hydrological extremes,
- to discuss regionalisation methods for predicting hydrological extremes in ungauged catchments,
- to investigate on the mutual interaction between human activities and hydrological extremes;
- to assess the role of different sources of information from paleofloods to remote sensing images in reducing the uncertainty of the prediction of hydrological extremes.  Both general methodological contributions and case studies of hydrological extremes in different regions covering a wide range of spatial scales are welcome.

Prof. Salvatore Manfreda
Prof. Vito Iacobellis
Prof. Andrea Gioia
Prof. Mauro Fiorentino
Prof. Krzysztof Kochanek
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • Flood;
  • Droughts
  • Climate change
  • Non-stationary processes
  • Flash floods

Published Papers (13 papers)

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Editorial

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3 pages, 159 KiB  
Editorial
The Impact of Climate on Hydrological Extremes
by Salvatore Manfreda, Vito Iacobellis, Andrea Gioia, Mauro Fiorentino and Krzysztof Kochanek
Water 2018, 10(6), 802; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10060802 - 17 Jun 2018
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 3729
Abstract
High and low flows and associated floods and droughts are extreme hydrological phenomena mainly caused by meteorological anomalies and modified by catchment processes and human activities. They exert increasing on human, economic, and natural environmental systems around the world. In this context, global [...] Read more.
High and low flows and associated floods and droughts are extreme hydrological phenomena mainly caused by meteorological anomalies and modified by catchment processes and human activities. They exert increasing on human, economic, and natural environmental systems around the world. In this context, global climate change along with local fluctuations may eventually trigger a disproportionate response in hydrological extremes. This special issue focuses on observed extreme events in the recent past, how these extremes are linked to a changing global/regional climate, and the manner in which they may shift in the coming years. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate on Hydrological Extremes)

Research

Jump to: Editorial

16 pages, 3608 KiB  
Article
Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information
by David R. Judi, Cynthia L. Rakowski, Scott R. Waichler, Youcan Feng and Mark S. Wigmosta
Water 2018, 10(6), 775; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10060775 - 13 Jun 2018
Cited by 18 | Viewed by 4496
Abstract
Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain-on-snow) events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there [...] Read more.
Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain-on-snow) events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgment that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information are available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient designs considering an uncertain climate future. This research demonstrates an approach for an integrated, multi-model, and multi-scale simulation to evaluate future flood impacts. This research used regional climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience for the Snohomish Watershed, WA, USA. Using the proposed integrated modeling approach, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to the earlier winter season. Moreover, clear non-stationarities in future flood risk were discovered under various climate scenarios. This research provides a clear approach for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to also provides actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate on Hydrological Extremes)
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19 pages, 53860 KiB  
Article
Spatial and Temporal Variations of Precipitation Extremes and Seasonality over China from 1961~2013
by Yiyuan Tao, Wen Wang, Shuang Song and Jun Ma
Water 2018, 10(6), 719; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10060719 - 01 Jun 2018
Cited by 21 | Viewed by 4333
Abstract
Using the 0.5° × 0.5° gridded Chinese ground precipitation dataset from 1961~2013, spatial and temporal variations in precipitation extremes, total precipitation, the seasonality of precipitation and their linkages in the context of climate change are investigated using the Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt change-point [...] Read more.
Using the 0.5° × 0.5° gridded Chinese ground precipitation dataset from 1961~2013, spatial and temporal variations in precipitation extremes, total precipitation, the seasonality of precipitation and their linkages in the context of climate change are investigated using the Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt change-point test and correlation analysis. The investigation focuses on four extreme indices, i.e., the annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the annual maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD), the annual total precipitation when daily precipitation is greater than 95th percentile (R95pTOT), and the maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day). The results show that precipitation extremes increased in northwestern China, especially Xinjiang, Tibet and Qinghai (CWD, R95pTOT and RX1day), and scattered parts of southeastern China (R95pTOT and RX1day), but decreased over considerable parts of southwestern China (CWD) and some small parts of northern China (CWD, R95pTOT and RX1day); the spatial patterns of the trends in precipitation extremes and that of total precipitation exhibit considerable similarity over China, which indicates the close relationship between changes in precipitation extremes and total precipitation; change points are detected in different periods ranging from early 1970s to early 2000s for different regions and extreme precipitation indices, and the spatial patterns of the abrupt changes of extreme indices are similar to those of the trends in extreme indices; the concentration index (CI) is strongly positively correlated with R95pTOT and RX1day in most areas in northern China (from the northeast to the northwest) and southwestern China (including Sichuan, Chongqing Guizhou and Guangxi), which means for these regions, the temporal heterogeneity of daily precipitation over a year is dominated by heavy rainfall amounts. The seasonality index of precipitation (SI) is positively related to R95pTOT and RX1day over most areas above 30° N, indicating that heavy precipitation events have a better chance to occur in places with a strong seasonal variation in annual precipitation in these areas, but for most areas below 30° N, the positive relationship is not significant. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate on Hydrological Extremes)
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16 pages, 3259 KiB  
Article
Analysis of the Precipitation Regime over the Ligurian Sea
by Sara Pensieri, Maria Elisabetta Schiano, Paola Picco, Marco Tizzi and Roberto Bozzano
Water 2018, 10(5), 566; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10050566 - 27 Apr 2018
Cited by 10 | Viewed by 4190
Abstract
The regions surrounding the North West Mediterranean Sea are often sites of intense precipitation events, particularly during the autumn months. The many casualties and the high economic costs due to these events demand a continuous improvement in forecasting models in support of early [...] Read more.
The regions surrounding the North West Mediterranean Sea are often sites of intense precipitation events, particularly during the autumn months. The many casualties and the high economic costs due to these events demand a continuous improvement in forecasting models in support of early warning systems. The main weather conditions that determine episodes of heavy rain over these regions are known, but the high number of processes and interactions taking place at different time and space scales makes it extremely difficult to increase the skill pertaining to their predictability. To deepen the knowledge of the phenomena, both numerical simulations and analysis of historical data sets are required. This paper presents the analysis of a five-year-long time series of rain data collected in the open Ligurian Sea from the fixed platform W1M3A and coastal stations. The analysis aims to characterize the main features of the precipitation over this area and its seasonal and annual variability. Furthermore, the work includes a description of the main atmospheric and oceanic surface parameters measured from the platform during some intense events that occurred in the period 2009–2013 and suggests to what extent offshore observations may contribute to improve the forecast of rainfall events. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate on Hydrological Extremes)
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18 pages, 14858 KiB  
Article
Low Flow Regimes of the Tarim River Basin, China: Probabilistic Behavior, Causes and Implications
by Peng Sun, Qiang Zhang, Rui Yao, Vijay P. Singh and Changqing Song
Water 2018, 10(4), 470; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10040470 - 12 Apr 2018
Cited by 16 | Viewed by 6884
Abstract
Droughts are a frequent occurrence in Xinjiang, China, and therefore fundamental to determining their hydrologic characteristics is low flow analysis. To that end, 11 probability distribution functions and 26 copulas functions were employed to analyze the changing characteristics of low flow regime (defined [...] Read more.
Droughts are a frequent occurrence in Xinjiang, China, and therefore fundamental to determining their hydrologic characteristics is low flow analysis. To that end, 11 probability distribution functions and 26 copulas functions were employed to analyze the changing characteristics of low flow regime (defined as seven-day low flow) of the Tarim River Basin. Results indicated that: (1) The Wakeby distribution satisfactorily described the probabilistic behavior of the low flow regime. According to Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterions (BIC), maximum likelihood, and other residual-based metrics, Tawn copula, Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern copula and Frank copula were the best choice and used in this current study. (2) After 1987, hydrological droughts of longer return periods were prone to higher occurrence frequency. (3) The low flow volume has been increasing in recent years due to the temperature-induced increase of snowmelt and increasing precipitation. However, hydrological droughts can be expected to occur due to the massive increase in water demand from the development of irrigated agriculture, increasing arable land and livestock farming. As a result, the water shortage in the lower Tarim River Basin will be increasingly severe under the influence of climate change and human activities. To alleviate the shortage would call for the development of water-saving agricultural irrigation, water-saving technology, conservation of eco-environment and sustainable development of local socio-economy. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate on Hydrological Extremes)
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12 pages, 1371 KiB  
Article
A 60-Minute Design Rainstorm for the Urban Area of Yangpu District, Shanghai, China
by Anqi Wang, Ningling Qu, Yuanfang Chen, Qi Li and Shenghua Gu
Water 2018, 10(3), 312; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10030312 - 13 Mar 2018
Cited by 14 | Viewed by 3844
Abstract
Rainfall with varied temporal distribution is an essential input to urban flood models. In this study, a 60-min design rainstorm with different return periods for the urban area of Yangpu District, Shanghai, China was derived. The design of areal rainfall amounts with given [...] Read more.
Rainfall with varied temporal distribution is an essential input to urban flood models. In this study, a 60-min design rainstorm with different return periods for the urban area of Yangpu District, Shanghai, China was derived. The design of areal rainfall amounts with given return periods was calculated through frequency analysis. The temporal distribution of the hyetograph was derived using the Pilgrim and Cordery method, combined with the fuzzy identification of seven mode hyetographs for single-peak and double-peak rainstorms separately. The derived hyetographs using the Pilgrim and Cordery method were compared with the classic Chicago rainstorm method. The results indicated that: (1) separating single-peak and double-peak rainstorms to derive respective hyetographs is more practical and rational; (2) a design rainstorm using the proposed methodology is superior to the Chicago rainstorm method. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate on Hydrological Extremes)
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13 pages, 5215 KiB  
Article
Assessment of Meteorological Drought Indices in Korea Using RCP 8.5 Scenario
by Dongwoo Jang
Water 2018, 10(3), 283; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10030283 - 07 Mar 2018
Cited by 28 | Viewed by 5105
Abstract
Diverse drought indices have been developed and used across the globe to assess and monitor droughts. Among them, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) are drought indices that have been recently developed and are being used in the world’s [...] Read more.
Diverse drought indices have been developed and used across the globe to assess and monitor droughts. Among them, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) are drought indices that have been recently developed and are being used in the world’s leading countries. This study took place in Korea’s major observatories for drought prediction until 2100, using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. On the basis of the drought index measured by SPI, future climates were forecast to be humid, as the index would rise over time. In contrast, the RDI, which takes evapotranspiration into account, anticipated dry climates, with the drought index gradually falling over time. From the analysis of the drought index through the RCP 8.5 scenario, extreme drought intensity will be more likely to occur due to rising temperatures. To obtain the diversity of drought prediction, the evapotranspiration was deemed necessary for calculating meteorological droughts. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate on Hydrological Extremes)
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17 pages, 5594 KiB  
Article
A Comparative Analysis of Exceptional Flood Events in the Context of Heavy Rains in the Summer of 2010: Siret Basin (NE Romania) Case Study
by Gheorghe Romanescu, Alin Mihu-Pintilie, Cristian Constantin Stoleriu, Donatella Carboni, Larisa Elena Paveluc and Catalin Ioan Cimpianu
Water 2018, 10(2), 216; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020216 - 17 Feb 2018
Cited by 27 | Viewed by 5082
Abstract
The Siret River crosses northeastern (NE) Romania from the north to the south, and it discharges into the Danube, near the city of Galati. Between 17 June and 10 July 2010, significant amounts of precipitations in the mountainous basin of Siret were recorded. [...] Read more.
The Siret River crosses northeastern (NE) Romania from the north to the south, and it discharges into the Danube, near the city of Galati. Between 17 June and 10 July 2010, significant amounts of precipitations in the mountainous basin of Siret were recorded. The floods comprised two periods with four bimodal cycles, and they were counted as among the strongest on the Romanian territory. The exceptional floods occurred in the rivers of Siret, Suceava, Moldova, Bistrita, Trotus, and so on. The most important compound flood wave was determined by the precipitations, which fell between 29 June and 1 July 2010, when significant amounts of rain were recorded, sometimes exceeding 80 mm/day. The high discharges on the Bistrita River—downstream from the Bicaz Reservoir—were controlled by complex hydro-technical works. The maximum discharge for summer floods in the year 2010 was recorded at the Dragesti hydrometric station: 2884 m3/s (historic discharge) compared with the preceding historic discharge (2850 m3/s) of the year 2008. The effects of floods were strongest in the counties of Suceava, Neamt, and Bacau. The floods on the main course of the Siret River were analyzed in correlation with the tributaries within the mountainous sector. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate on Hydrological Extremes)
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18 pages, 5283 KiB  
Article
Application of ENSO and Drought Indices for Water Level Reconstruction and Prediction: A Case Study in the Lower Mekong River Estuary
by Hok Sum Fok, Qing He, Kwok Pan Chun, Zhiwei Zhou and Thuan Chu
Water 2018, 10(1), 58; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10010058 - 11 Jan 2018
Cited by 29 | Viewed by 5835
Abstract
Water level monitoring is important for understanding the global hydrological cycle. Remotely-sensed indices that capture localized instantaneous responses have been extensively explored for water level reconstruction during the past two decades. However, the potential usage of the Palmer’s Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and [...] Read more.
Water level monitoring is important for understanding the global hydrological cycle. Remotely-sensed indices that capture localized instantaneous responses have been extensively explored for water level reconstruction during the past two decades. However, the potential usage of the Palmer’s Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices for water level reconstruction and prediction has not been explored. This paper examines the relationship between observed water level and PDSI based on a soil-moisture water balance model and three ENSO indices for the lower Mekong River estuary on a monthly temporal scale. We found that the time-lagged information between the standardized water level and the ENSO indices that enabled us to reconstruct the water level using the ENSO indices. The influence of strong ENSO events on the water level can help capture the hydrological extremes during the period. As a result, PDSI-based water level reconstruction can be further improved with the assistance of ENSO information (called ENSO-assisted PDSI) during ENSO events. The water level reconstructed from the PDSI and ENSO indices (and that of remote sensing) compared to observed water level shows a correlation coefficient of around 0.95 (and <0.90), with an RMS error ranging from 0.23 to 0.42 m (and 0.40 to 0.79 m) and an NSE around 0.90 (and <0.81), respectively. An external assessment also displayed similar results. This indicates that the usage of ENSO information could lead to a potential improvement in water level reconstruction and prediction for river basins affected by the ENSO phenomenon and hydrological extremes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate on Hydrological Extremes)
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16 pages, 11225 KiB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Regimes in the Eastern Inland River Basin of Inner Mongolian Plateau, China
by Wei Li, Limin Duan, Yanyun Luo, Tingxi Liu and Buren Scharaw
Water 2018, 10(1), 35; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10010035 - 03 Jan 2018
Cited by 15 | Viewed by 5366
Abstract
In this work, we use the gridded precipitation dataset (with a resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°) of the eastern part of inland river basin of Inner Mongolian Plateau from 1961–2015 as the basis and adopt the methods of climatic diagnosis (e.g., the Modified [...] Read more.
In this work, we use the gridded precipitation dataset (with a resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°) of the eastern part of inland river basin of Inner Mongolian Plateau from 1961–2015 as the basis and adopt the methods of climatic diagnosis (e.g., the Modified Mann-Kendall method, principal component analysis, and correlation analysis) to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of six extreme precipitation indices. Furthermore, we analyzed the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and the observed extreme precipitation. The results indicated that the gridded dataset can be used to describe the precipitation distribution in our study area. In recent 55 years, the inter-annual variation trends of extreme precipitation indices are generally dominated by declination except for the maximum precipitation over five days (RX5DAY) and the heavy precipitation (R95P), in particular, the decreasing regions of consecutive dry days (CDD) accounts for 91% of the entire basin, 17.28% of which is showing the significant downward trend. Contrary to CDD, the spatial distribution of the other five indices is gradually decreasing from northeast to southwest, and the precipitation intensity (SDII) ranges from 3.8–5.3 mm·d−1, with relatively small spatial differences. To some extent, CDD and R95P can used to characterize the extreme precipitation regimes. Moreover, the number of days with heavy precipitation (RR10), SDII, and R95P are more susceptible to the ENSO events. In addition, the moderate El Niño event may increase the probability of CDD, while the La Niña events may increase the risk of the heavy rainfall regime in the study area. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate on Hydrological Extremes)
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6482 KiB  
Article
Changes in Extreme Precipitation: A Case Study in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River in China
by Fengsong Pei, Changjiang Wu, Aixue Qu, Yan Xia, Kun Wang and Yi Zhou
Water 2017, 9(12), 943; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9120943 - 04 Dec 2017
Cited by 15 | Viewed by 4863
Abstract
Monitoring extreme climate events is of great importance, mainly due to increasingly severe impacts of extreme climate on nature and humanity. However, the characteristics of extreme climate events, especially extreme precipitation, frequently show complex variations in the context of climate change. Taking the [...] Read more.
Monitoring extreme climate events is of great importance, mainly due to increasingly severe impacts of extreme climate on nature and humanity. However, the characteristics of extreme climate events, especially extreme precipitation, frequently show complex variations in the context of climate change. Taking the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLR-YR) in China as a case study, extreme daily precipitation during 1961–2012 was analyzed from the aspects of frequency and intensity. The changes in extreme daily precipitation in the MLR-YR were further attributed to several factors, including large-scale circulation, hydrologic engineering and local topography. Our analyses indicate that both frequency and intensity of the extreme daily precipitation in the MLR-YR showed overall increasing trends from 1961 to 2012. The increase could be associated with weakened East Asian summer monsoon in past decades. In addition, inverse trends could also be found locally between the frequency and the intensity. For instance, extreme precipitation intensity revealed an enhanced trend in the western part of the middle reach of the Yangtze River, while extreme precipitation frequency showed decreasing trends in this region. These phenomena could be associated with the effects of some local factors (e.g., lake regulation, hydropower engineering, topography). Our study highlights the important role of local factors on extreme precipitation changes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate on Hydrological Extremes)
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2100 KiB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Variability of Extreme Summer Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin and the Associations with Climate Patterns
by Zhenkuan Su, Zhenchun Hao, Feifei Yuan, Xi Chen and Qing Cao
Water 2017, 9(11), 873; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9110873 - 09 Nov 2017
Cited by 21 | Viewed by 3901
Abstract
Understanding the spatiotemporal variability of seasonal extreme precipitation and its linkage with climate patterns is of great importance for water resource management over the Yangtze River Basin. Hence, this study examined the spatiotemporal variability of seasonal extreme precipitation through the archetypal analysis (AA), [...] Read more.
Understanding the spatiotemporal variability of seasonal extreme precipitation and its linkage with climate patterns is of great importance for water resource management over the Yangtze River Basin. Hence, this study examined the spatiotemporal variability of seasonal extreme precipitation through the archetypal analysis (AA), by which observations were decomposed and characterized as several extreme modes. Six archetypes were identified and can obviously exhibit the features of events with above average or below average precipitation. Summer precipitation is the most variable compared to the winter, spring, and autumn precipitation through the trend analysis. It ranged from extremely dry (A6) to normal (A1 and A2) to extremely wet (A4). Climate teleconnections to the four archetypes for summer precipitation and relative importance of climate patterns were thus investigated. Results show that El Niño Southern Oscillation index is the strongest determinant of the ensuing archetypes representing the events with above average precipitation, while the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) contributes most to the events with below-average precipitation. A warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is significantly correlated with the above-average precipitation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate on Hydrological Extremes)
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5313 KiB  
Article
Effective Use of Ensemble Numerical Weather Predictions in Taiwan by Means of a SOM-Based Cluster Analysis Technique
by Ming-Chang Wu, Jing-Shan Hong, Ling-Feng Hsiao, Li-Huan Hsu and Chieh-Ju Wang
Water 2017, 9(11), 836; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9110836 - 30 Oct 2017
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 5811
Abstract
Typhoon rainfall is one of the most important water resources in Taiwan. However, heavy rainfall during typhoons often leads to serious disasters. Therefore, accurate typhoon rainfall forecasts are always desired for water resources managers and disaster warning systems. In this study, the quantitative [...] Read more.
Typhoon rainfall is one of the most important water resources in Taiwan. However, heavy rainfall during typhoons often leads to serious disasters. Therefore, accurate typhoon rainfall forecasts are always desired for water resources managers and disaster warning systems. In this study, the quantitative rainfall forecasts from an ensemble numerical weather prediction system in Taiwan are used. Furthermore, a novel strategy, which is based on the use of a self-organizing map (SOM) based cluster analysis technique, is proposed to integrate these ensemble forecasts. By means of the SOM-based cluster analysis technique, ensemble forecasts that have similar features are clustered. That is helpful for users to effectively combine these ensemble forecasts for providing better typhoon rainfall forecasts. To clearly demonstrate the advantage of the proposed strategy, actual application is conducted during five typhoon events. The results indicate that the ensemble rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models are well categorized by the SOM-based cluster analysis technique. Moreover, the integrated typhoon rainfall forecasts resulting from the proposed strategy are more accurate when compared to those from the conventional method (i.e., the ensemble mean of all forecasts). In conclusion, the proposed strategy provides improved forecasts of typhoon rainfall. The improved quantitative rainfall forecasts are expected to be useful to support disaster warning systems as well as water resources management systems during typhoons. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate on Hydrological Extremes)
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