| Till Marco von Wachter
Professor of Economics
Faculty Director
Director of Federal Statistical Research Data Center (RDC)
Email: tvwachter@econ.ucla.edu UCLA Mailing Address
Contact Information:
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CVCurriculum Vitae [PDF Format] (UPDATED November 2023)Covid-19 and the Labor MarketPANDEMIC UI REPORTS California Unemployment Insurance Claims During the COVID-19 Pandemic10 Highlights Increasing Equity and Improving Measurement in the U.S. Unemployment System Policy Paper "Data-Driven Opportunities to Scale Reemployment Opportunities and Social Insurance for Unemployed Workers During The Recovery" (published Aspen Economic Stragegy Group Policy Paper) Policy Paper "Lost Generations: Long-Term Effects of the Covid-19 Crisis on Job Losers and Labor Market Entrants and Policy Options" (published Fiscal Studies) State of the Literature "The Persistent Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions for Young Adults and their Sources" (published Journal of Economic Perspectives) New PapersNEW "UI Benefit Generosity and Labor Supply from 2002-2020: Evidence from California UI records"(joint with Alex Bell, TJ Hedin, Geoff Schnorr, conditionally accepted, David Card Festschrift, Journal of Labor Economics) NEW VERSION "Socioeconomic Decline and Death: Midlife Impacts of Graduating in a Recession" (joint with Hannes Schwandt) NEW VERSION "Workforce Aging, Pension Reforms, and Firm Outcomes" (joint with Francesca Carta and Francesco D'Amuri) NEW VERSION "Shareholder Power and the Decline of Labor" (joint with Antonio Falato and Hyunseob Kim) Representative Survey - Working Conditions in the United States2017 Working Conditions Report "Working Conditions in the United States: Results of the 2015 American Working Conditions Survey"(joint with Nicole Maestas, Kathleen J. Mullen, David Powell, Jeffrey B. Wenger, RAND Research Report August 2017) More Information WEBPAGE OF AMERICAN WORKING CONDITIONS SURVEY PublicationsMinimum Wages & Monopsony "Minimum Wage Employment Effects and Labor Market Concentration"(Review of Economic Studies, joint with Jose' Azar, Emiliano Huet-Vaughn, Ioana Marinescu, and Bledi Taska, Accepted) Inequality & Working Conditions "The Value of Working Conditions in the United States and Implications for the Structure of Wages" (American Economic Review, joint with Nicole Maestas, Kathleen Mullen, David Powell, Jeff Wenger, Forthcoming) Job Displacement "The Costs of Job Displacement over the Business Cycle and Its Sources: Evidence from Germany" (American Economic Review, joint with Johannes Schmieder and Joerg Heining, Forthcoming) Additional Results in Web Appendix Mortality "Changes in the Relationship Between Income and Life Expectancy Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic, California, 2015-2021" (Journal of American Medical Association (JAMA), 2022, joint with H.Schwandt, J.Currie, J.Kowarski, D.Chapman, S.H.Woolf, 328(4): 360-366.) Program Evaluation "An Overview of Current Results and New Methods for Estimating Heterogeneous Program Impacts" (Lessons from SSA Demonstrations for Disability Policy and Future Research, 2021, Edited by Austin Nichols, Abt Associates; Jeffrey Hemmeter and Debra Goetz Engler, Chapter 7, 271-322. Rockville, MD: Abt Press.) Firms & Inequality "Firming Up Inequality" (Quarterly Journal of Economics, joint with Jae Song, David Price, Fatih Guvenen, Nick Bloom, NBER Working Paper No. 21119, 2019) Long-Term Recession Effects "Unlucky Cohorts: Estimating the Long-term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-sectional Data Sets" (Journal of Labor Economics, joint with Hannes Schwandt, 2019) Audit Study "Whom Do Employers Want? The Role of Recent Employment and Unemployment Status and Age" (Journal of Labor Economics, Henry S. Farber, Chris M. Herbst, and Daniel Silverman, NBER Working Paper 24605, 2018) Program Evaluation "Social Experiments in the Labor Market" (Handbook of Field Experiments, joint with Jesse Rothstein, March 2017) Unemployment Insurance "A Context-robust Measure of the disincentive cost of Unemployment Insurance" (American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, joint with Johannes Schmieder, May 2017) Unemployment Insurance "The Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefits: New Evidence and Interpretation" (Annual Review of Economics, joint with Johannes Schmieder, October 2016) Additional Results in Web Appendix Unemployment Insurance "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance and Nonemployment Duration on Wages" (American Economic Review, joint with Johannes Schmieder and Stefan Bender, NBER Working Paper No. 19772, 2013.) Additional Results in Web Appendix Audit Study "Factors Determining Callbacks to Job Applications by the Unemployed: An Audit Study" (RSF Journal of the Social Sciences, Special Issue "Social and Economic Effects of the Great Recession, joint with Henry Farber and Daniel Silverman.) Unemployment & Disability "Unemployment Insurance and Disability Insurance in the Great Recession" (Journal of Labor Economics, joint with Andreas Mueller and Jesse Rothstein, NBER Working Paper No. 19672, 2013. Updated 2014.) Nonemployment Trends "Long-Term Nonemployment and Job Displacement" (A Symposium Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyo., joint with Jae Song, August 2014) "Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss" (Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, joint with Steve Davis, 2012) "The Effects of Extended Unemployment Insurance Over the Business Cycle: Regression Discontinuity Estimates Estimates over 20 years" (Quarterly Journal of Economics, joint with Johannes Schmieder and Stefan Bender, 2012.) Additional Results in Web Appendix "BEST PAPER" AEJ: APPLIED "Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession" (American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, joint with Phil Oreopoulos and Andrew Heisz, 2012.) (this is an updated version of NBER Working Paper No. w12159) Additional Appendices as Part of IZA Discussion Paper No. 3578 PRESS COVERAGE Wall Street Journal, The Curse of the Class of 2009, May 2009 KQED/NPR "Forum", Job Prospects for College Grads, February 2009 New York Times, Hello Young Workers: One Way to Reach the Top is To Start There, May 2006 NBER Digest, The Career Effects Of Graduating In A Recession, November 2006 "The Long-Term Effects of UI Extensions on Employment" (American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, joint with Johannes Schmieder and Stefan Bender, 2012) Additional Results in Web Appendix "Trends in Employment and Earnings of Allowed and Rejected Applicants to the Social Security Disability Insurance Program" (American Economic Review, joint with Jae Song and Joyce Manchester,2010) Additional Results in Web Appendix "Does Wage Persistence Matter for Employment Fluctuations? Evidence from Displaced Workers" (joint with Johannes Schmieder, 2010, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Lead Article) Web Appendix "Job Displacement and Mortality: An Analysis using Administrative Data" (joint with Daniel Sullivan, 2009, Quarterly Journal of Economics) (this is an updated version of NBER Working Paper No. 13626) PRESS COVERAGE New York Times (Front Page, February 2010) Trauma of Job Loss Often Includes Health Problems Boston Globe Worse Than Fired, September 2009 AARP Magazine Laid Off!, April 2009 Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC, December 2007) Laid-off workers face increased premature death risk "Average Earnings and Long-Term Mortality: Evidence from Administrative Data" (joint with Daniel Sullivan, 2009, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings) "Following Germany's Lead: Using International Monetary Linkages to Identify the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Economy" (joint with Julian di Giovanni and Justin McCrary, 2009, Review of Economics and Statistics) (also available as IMF Working Paper WP/05/86 ) "Do Initial Conditions Persist Between Firms? An Analysis of Firm-Entry Cohort Effects and Job Losers using Matched Employer-Employee Data" (joint with Stefan Bender, published in S. Bender, J. Lane, K. Shaw, F. Andersson, and T. von Wachter (eds), "The Analysis of Firms and Employees: Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches", 2008, University Chicago Press) >>>> Book Now Available from NBER Website "Zero Returns to Compulsory Schooling in Germany: Evidence and Interpretation" (joint with Steve Pischke, 2008, Review of Economics and Statistics) (also available as NBER Working Paper No. 11414) "In the Right Place at the Wrong Time: The Role of Firms and Luck in Young Workers' Careers" (joint with Stefan Bender, 2006, American Economic Review) Downloadable Appendices Longer Working Paper Version (IZA Working Paper No. 1348) Working Papers - Job Displacement"The Long-Term Impact of Job Displacement in Germany During the 1982 Recession on Earnings, Income, and Employment"(joint with Johannes Schmieder and Stefan Bender, Columbia University, Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series DP0910-07) PRESS COVERAGE Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Entlassene verdienen noch nach 15 Jahren weniger (Job Losers Earnings Losses Last Over 15 Years) , October 2009 Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Zurueck auf Los (Starting Over), October 2009 "Variation in the Cost of Job Loss by Worker Skill: Evidence Using Matched Data from California, 1991-2000" (joint with Elizabeth Handwerker) "Long-Term Earnings Losses due to Mass-Layoffs During the 1982 Recession: An Analysis Using Longitudinal Administrative Data from 1974 to 2004" (joint with Jae Song and Joyce Manchester) PRESS COVERAGE New York Times (Front Page) Income Loss Persists Long After Layoffs, August 2009 Financial Times A recession-proof career path? Only for the lucky ones, August 2009 Chicago Tribune Laid off? You'll likely never make as much, May 2009 Philadelphia Inquirer (Front Page) Bleak lesson: For most jobless, loss of earnings permanent, Sep 2009 WNYC Radio, The Brian Lehrer Show Earnings Down, August 2009 CBS Money Watch The New Job Market: Who Wins and Who Loses?, June 2009 Bloomberg News Great Recession Will Redefine Full Employment as Jobs Vanish, May 2009 CNN Radio Houston Morning Show with Brent Clanton, August 2009 CNN Radio Atlanta News, August 2009 "Estimating the 'True' Cost of Job Loss: Evidence Using Matched Data from California 1991-2000" (joint with Andrew Hildreth and Elizabeth Weber, Submitted) "Long-Term Earnings Losses due to Job Separation During the 1982 Recession: An Analysis Using Longitudinal Administrative Data from 1974 to 2004" (joint with Jae Song and Joyce Manchester, Columbia University, Dep. of Economics, Discussion Paper No. 0708-16) Working Papers - Disability and Aging"The End of Mandatory Retirement in the US: Effects on Retirement and Implicit Contracts"(Center for Labor Economics Working Paper No. 49, University of California Berkeley, 2002) (Revise & Resubmit, Industrial Labor Relations Review) "The Effect of Economic Conditions on the Employment of Workers Nearing Retirement Age" (Center for Retirement Research at Boston College Working Paper, WP#2007-25) Congressional TestimoniesHearing of Senate Budget Committee [February 3, 2011]"Challenges for the U.S. Economic Recovery" PDF Version of Testimony Hearing of Subcommittee on Income Security and Family Support of Committee on Ways and Means [June 10, 2010] "Responding to Long-Term Unemployment" PDF Version of Testimony Hearing of Joint Economic Committee of U.S. Congress [May 26, 2010] "Avoiding a Lost Generation: How to Minimize the Impact of the Great Recession on Young Workers" PDF Version of Testimony Hearing of Joint Economic Committee of U.S. Congress [April 29, 2010] "Long-term Unemployment: Causes, Consequences and Solutions" PDF Version of Testimony |