The Biggest Business Trends In 2022-2025. And The Ones That Aren’t.

Everyone likes to describe trends.  I do too, but I usually take a contrarian route to some alternative trends, while challenging the preferred ones.  There are some business trends everyone seem to endorse, like sustainability, AI and the wide scale acceptance of cryptocurrency.  But not all of them make sense – at least not in the immediate or near-term futures.  Some of them will never happen.

Punditized Business Trends

Let’s stipulate from the beginning that the distinction between business and technology trends is gone – which is good, because business trends are technology trends and technology trends are business trends.  Whether companies believe it or not, to a greater or greatest extent, all companies are technology companies – a trend that’s now perpetual.

There are favorite trends, for sure.  Bernard Marr, Sophie Bowman and Anis Uzzaman suggest at least the following:

• Sustainability/Is a Must/Renewable Energy 
• Humans Vs Robots
• Changing Talent Requirements
• Flat Organizational Structures
• “Authenticity”
• “Purposeful” Business
• Co-Opetition & Integration
• Alternative Funding
• Remote Work
• Data Analytics
• Innovation
• Automation/New World Order/Continued Growth
• Decentralized Finance
• Virtual Interfaces 
• Cryptocurrency Acceptance/Will Be King  NFT Platforms
• Robotics

Trends that Matter & Those That Don’t

Many of these trends appear to be trendy, but there may be some contrarian perspectives we might want to consider.  Let’s make short order of the long list.  

Sustainability

Sustainability is a legitimate trend, but this may be too much:  “any business that ignores sustainability is unlikely to do well in this age of conscious consumption.”  I doubt it.  Companies are becoming expert at sustainability messaging versus real progress or self-accountability.  Much of the importance of this trend depends upon regulatory action, and the enforcement of the legislation that emerges.  Complicating the validity of this trend is what happens globally, not just nationally.  The Russian invasion of Ukraine has already changed the debate around fossil fuels.

Humans Versus Intelligent Robots

If we look to 2025 and a little beyond we’ll see massive job (and career) erosion.  McKinsey, Oxford and others predict upwards of 800 million jobs will be lost due to automation by 2030.  It will start as a partnership – “hybrid AI” – and end with total displacement. Governments will be forced to deal with the damage created by companies looking to save/make money with robotics and related technologies.  Sure, there will be new jobs created, but the skills necessary to acquire these jobs will be way beyond the reach of the displaced. (More on this later.) In many domains, machines are smarter than humans. They’re also more efficient. The “versus” in many domains will eventually disappear.

Talent Pools

The historic US underinvestment in STEM technologies – despite its wonderful messaging – will haunt the country and its partners for decades.  The talent pool for the Future of Work and the 4^th Industrial Revolution is weak, and arguably getting weaker.  A massive STEM retooling and reeducation campaign is way overdue.  Yes, gig work will replace traditional “jobs,” but the larger problem is who’s going to do the technology-based jobs of the future.

Organizational Structures

Remote work makes traditional org structures obsolete, but what should new structures look like?  Hierarchical structures are dissed by everyone, but I’d argue “not so fast.”  Hierarchies provide management-by-task with clear accountability and responsibility – something flatter structures don’t easily provide, especially when everyone’s somewhere else.

Authenticity & Purposefulness  

Brands have manipulated customers and clients for decades.  “Authenticity” is wrapped in manipulation.  Digitally savvy customers fall for manipulative messaging less and less, but many remain vulnerable.  Emotional connections to companies, products and services will decline, not rise, especially as automation takes hold and our interaction with companies is defined by bots. Who says, “I love Amazon!”? Or “I just love my health insurer”? Social media and investigative reporting can also destroy a brand in an hour.  The last thing companies – in an age of volatility and political division – should do is “take stands.”  Same for purposeful messaging:  customers and clients know that companies exist to make money for their stakeholders and shareholders – which is fine — but entering political frays only has financial downsides.

Co-Opetition & Integration

We’ve learned that supply chairs are fragile – but necessary.  Companies should optimize their channel relationships and integrate as many functions and transactions as possible:  no brainer.  But isn’t it interesting how huge manufacturing philosophies like “just-in-time” (JIT)” just don’t work with today’s  global supply chains? New philosophies — and investments — are overdue.

New Funding

Crowdfunding is where companies who cannot generate funding from traditional sources turn for money.  Kickstarter and Indigogo are fun as marketing tools, but not sources of deep-pocket funding.  SPACs have already become “traditional.”  ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings) will become scarcer as Bitcoin and Ethereum establish themselves as the go-to cryptocurrencies.  The US VC is far from perfect, but reasonably efficient.  The adjacent model of commercializing military R&D is efficient.  Who wants to challenge DARPA’s impact?

Remote Work

This trend is for real because it serves vested interests on both sides of the equation, especially as US continues to fail to manage traffic (and associated pollution), healthcare and childcare, which are all intertwined with remote work.  While employers love reducing expensive office space, there are lots of real estate investors, developers and property managers less then thrilled by the trends. But they’re permanent — unless and until the government funds meaningful child care (which is unlikely).

Data Analytics

Data analytics will evolve.  It will be enabled by data lakes and fabrics — and especially machine learning.  Data protection is an ongoing trend. Ultimately, advanced insight will result from augmented analytics.

Business Model Innovation

In spite of what we might tell anyone who’s listening, most “innovation” is incremental, not disruptive.  The challenge is to move across the innovation continuum toward disruptive innovation – increasingly with the help of “outsiders.” This is extremely difficult for risk-averse market incumbents, which is why new entrants are so successful.

Automation

Automaton is an opportunity and a threat.  Companies will chase automation as fast as it yields cost savings and revenue generation.  This trend is well underway and will never stop.

Decentralized Finance

Blockchain is making smaller adoption steps than many consultants and pundits predicted.  Is it in the “trough of disillusionment”?  It’s notably expanded from cryptocurrency to smart contracts to NFTs.  But other applications – like voting – remain on wish lists. There’s also an environmental issue that gaining traction which might morph push blockchain to a sustainability play — not good for blockers and tacklers.

Virtual Interfaces 

The way we interact with all things digital is obviously evolving.  Conversational AI will change interfaces faster than all other interface technologies combined, especially when combined with AR, VR and even The Metaverse (post 2025). “Can I talk to you?” will be heard everywhere.

“Cryptocurrency Will Be King” (& NFTs Too)

The response to this trend is “maybe.”  It all depends on acceptance at the corporate level (the government level too).  As suggested, “it’s been predicted that in 2022, cryptocurrency will become more widely accepted as a payment source.  A number of large companies are already accepting Bitcoin  payments.”  Many more will be required for crypto to become the King of anything.  If that happens, then we can talk.  But if that happens, governments and the banks that influence them so profoundly will react aggressively to regulate and tax cryptocurrency transactions.  This is a long way from over.

NFTs?  Yes, they’re here to stay.  Never forget that critics of modern abstract art are always screaming about value:  would you pay $82,500,000 for a single piece of modern art?  (Rothko’s “No. 7 was sold in 2021 at Sotheby’s for $82.5M).  Or $300,000,000 for a single piece by Willem de Kooning?  If you doubt the value of NFTs, look at the 10 most expensive contemporary pieces of art.  Yes, the NFT market will expand.  Just wait until the millennials (and especially the Zippies) inherit boomer money!

Life Science Technologies

Hard to disagree here.  Life sciences, especially in the context of personalized medicine, will continue to explode.  “I also foresee the development of personalized medicine through advancements in genetics technology.”  Already well underway.  The business models here track perfectly with the pace of genomic discovery.

Expansion of 5G-6G and Satellite Internet Usage

Predictions around bandwidth are easy.  Yes, it keeps getting broader and faster.  The push to ubiquitous coverage is even easier to predict.  So, not much new here.  5G-then-6G?  Of course, though here too government policy (and funding) will determine the pace of coverage — which is still underwhelming in the US.

High-Performance Computing Becomes Mainstream

It all depends on one’s definition of “mainstream.” and “high performance.”  “Promising?”  Absolutely.  But the due diligence is not complete regarding when Quantum will become “mainstream” – as mainstream, for example, as edge computing.  This trend looks great, but it will take a few more years to mature. 

“Internet Security & Privacy Dominate”

Privacy is gone.  It died when the business models and processes that monetize personal and corporate data made so many people rich.  It’s that simple – and it will expand, in spite of feeble efforts to give “users” the option to protect their data or the movement toward a new Internet – Web 3.0 – where people are in control of their data, where the Internet’s “decentralized.”  All of that said, the number of cybercrimes is increasing; more regulation is way overdue.

“The Metaverse Will Shine in 2022”

No it won’t.  It’s not ready.  Yes, it’s a fascinating description of a future, immersive digital world, but it’s still in the imaginative stage.  It will develop over time as the major players define the competitive space, and the enabling technology develops.  There’s still tons of uncertainty about how it will actually work, what the business models will look like, who the vendors will be and the adoption trajectory.  Do we “expect the metaverse to be immersive, ubiquitous, and free to access?”  Unlikely it will be free.  Will “it will be digitally focused, and potentially involves entertainment, social connection, work productivity, and behavior modification at scale”?  Probably.  “It will create an entire ecosystem for developers, apps, ads, and new digital innovations.”  Absolutely, so long as there’s the money to pay them.  Pieces of this world will emerge over the next few years, as more and more exciting digital ideas unfold alongside. Up till this point, the major outcome of The Metaverse discussion has been to distract us from Meta’s (Facebook’s) larger Instagram problems, which remain unsettling to put it mildly. (if you’ve already forgotten about the Haugen Papers, you can blame The Metaverse: it worked.)

Robotics 

This trend is solid.  It’s fueled by robotics technology but also by “The Great Resignation.”  Like AI and machine learning (which are brothers and sisters), robotic technology saves and makes money.  We’re way past the MVP stage. All kinds of robots will populate our homes, offices, factories, schools, stores — everywhere — within five to seven years. Right now you can buy your own quadruped dog for $5,000.

Renewable Energy

An enormous renewable energy business model is already unfolding.  Regardless of the political nonsense that surrounds the sector, as profits continue to grow from the development and application of “green” technology, the politics will quiet down: “That’s gold, Jerry, gold.”  Bania gets it.  Over the next five years, everyone will get it.  As the world moves to EVs, alternative energy will become even more essential.  But wars cause setbacks.

Safe Versus Uncertain Trends

Business trends are unfolding today that enable “safe” business-technology trends.  Disruptive trends are more challenging to identify and never completely right – which is fine.  The macro shift to digital will be characterized by widespread automation, which is the major takeaway from pundit and otherwise inspired forecasters. All of the above business-technology trends will happen to some degree, but many will be slower to materialize than the pundits promise. Some may never happen at all. Companies should prepare for the macro trends identified above. “Digital” will be wide and deep. Companies should assign teams to track trends and assess the impact they will have on their products and services. If they miss major trends, they will suffer, and sometimes fatally. We’ve seen this trend before.